Rumours interplay in disaster management

Authors Judith Molka-Danielsen1, Thomas Beke2
1Molde University College, P.O. 2110, N-6402 Molde, Norway.
2University of Szeged, Szilleri sgt. 12, 6723 Szeged, Hungary

Abstract Rumours affect how rational individuals assess risks, evaluate needs, and make decisions in disaster-affected environments. This paper presents a comprehensive understanding of the role of rumours in disaster management. First we present an objective definition of 'rumour' that is a compound definition including both a message with some degree of false content and a method of transporting the content. Second, we analyse two well-documented cases of technological and biological disaster events that have resulted in both losses to human welfare and economic losses and the interplay of rumours in these cases. We explain how rumours as objects become enacted and activate other objects. A model for understanding these interactions of rumours in disaster environments is developed and explained. Finally, we outline a strategy for authorities and assistance agencies that can contribute to disaster management.

Keywords communications, disaster management, enactment, information, objects, rumours, emergency management, risk assessment, decision making, technological disasters, biological disasters, human welfare, economic losses

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334 Int. J. Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 9, No. 4, 2008
Copyright © 2008 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Rumours interplay in disaster management
Judith Molka-Danielsen*
Associate Professor,
Molde University College,
P.O. 2110, N-6402 Molde, Norway
E-mail: J.Molka-Danielsen@himolde.no
*Corresponding author
Thomas Beke
Associate Adjunct Professor,
University of Szeged,
Szilléri sgt. 12, 6723 Szeged, Hungary
E-mail: beke.tamas@communicatio.hu
Abstract: Rumours affect how rational individuals assess risks, evaluate needs,
and make decisions in disaster-affected environments. This paper presents a
comprehensive understanding of the role of rumours in disaster management.
First we present an objective definition of ‘rumour’ that is a compound
definition including both a message with some degree of false content and a
method of transporting the content. Second, we analyse two well-documented
cases of technological and biological disaster events that have resulted in both
losses to human welfare and economic losses and the interplay of rumours in
these cases. We explain how rumours as objects become enacted and activate
other objects. A model for understanding these interactions of rumours in
disaster environments is developed and explained. Finally, we outline a strategy
for authorities and assistance agencies that can contribute to disaster
management.
Keywords: communications; disaster management; enactment; information;
objects; rumours.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Molka-Danielsen, J. and
Beke, T. (2008) ‘Rumours interplay in disaster management’, Int. J. Risk
Assessment and Management, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp.334–350.
Biographical notes: Judith Molka-Danielsen is an Associate Professor in the
Department of Informatics with Molde University College in Norway. She
currently teaches a graduate course on the structural study of knowledge-based
networks and an undergraduate course on e-business. She has a PhD (1998) and
MS from the School of Information Sciences, Telecommunications Program at
the University of Pittsburgh. Her recent research evaluates the fit, adoption and
use of information technologies such as broadband infrastructures, learning
management systems, and e-democracy portals by various social groups.
Thomas Beke has a Degree of Law (1995) from the University of Szeged in
Hungary. He formerly held a joint position (1997–2002) as Director of
Communications with a subsidiary of the company Gaz de France and the
University of Szeged. He has a part time position, Associate Adjunct Professor
of PR and Market Communications with the University of Szeged. He is also

1 Introduction
Rumours play a confounding role in disaster management. Numerous anecdotal
references exist in the literature to indicate that rumours arise in complex disaster
environments, but no literature provides an in-depth analysis of the impact (often
detrimental) that rumours impress. Some studies have begun to look at the long-term
impact of rumours on health, such as in the case of the Chernobyl nuclear accident of
1986. (Rahu, 2003) They report that in an atmosphere of fear, distrust and a scarcity of
reliable information that people are eager to circulate emotionally negative news, even if
that news is exaggerated. An eminent study, the World Disasters Report (2005) of the
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, emphasises the vital
role of accurate information as a form of aid to disaster-affected people. Their report on,
‘Run, tell your neighbour!’ describes a word of mouth hurricane warning system in the
Caribbean that is exemplified for saving lives. In another of their case examples, they
analyse and criticise the relief efforts that followed the tsunami, which devastated Aceh
on 26 December 2004. It was noted that a rush of response teams and aid were sent to the
most newsworthy areas while other communities were neglected (International
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 2005). Recent reports offer hope
that relief agencies are beginning to recognise the important role of accurate information
in relief efforts. We claim however that no research has yet presented a comprehensive
understanding of the role of rumours in disaster management. The former cases give
evidence that erroneous and incomplete information exists in many real-world scenarios.

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