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1. Keynes. It’s always refreshing to read an article by someone who has actually read Keynes. (As it’s equally amusing to read commentary by a supposed anti-Keynesian who clearly never has.) Keynes makes the important and, hopefully, obvious observation that one of the reasons that growth cycles stall is because the richest, who tend to accrue a larger share of the newly made wealth, consume proportionately less than the middle class. Consumer demand thereby slackens. This is almost a picture perfect description of the 90’s with wealth being accumulated by the richest and earning power of the middle class eroded.
The answer: government taxes the riches proportionately higher and spends the money on socially productive investments such as roads, health and schools.
2. Systemic risk: As our world economy becomes increasingly complex it becomes increasingly susceptible to systemic shocks. In 2008 the shock was the massive leveraged investments on US mortgages and the various derivative bets placed on those securities. Now? Not sure, but through various grapevines I understand that the massive hedge funds are investing massively into each other. I can’t do the math, but I’m sure this is not healthy. Our system has not yet been politically able to control and oversee these funds. So I’m not sure anyone can quantify the risk or what would trigger a systematic failure of the hedge fund “industry”, but the risk is there and probably growing.
3. Japan’s depression. It’s not clear that there ever was one from the perspective of the Japanese population. That country and the people I know there have always seemed to do just fine. Example: We deplore the historically low interest rates that have been paid. But, when their savings accounts in Yen are measured against their world purchasing power, those savings have probably done quite well as the yen increased in relative value year after year. Likewise on deplorable corporate earnings…In Japan stockholders and their stock prices are not King. They are one constituency of the corporation. As are the employees and even the retirees. The overriding driving force of the Japanese corporation is not shareholder return, but the long term well being of the corporation. Hence stock prices seem depressed from our perspective but the system as a whole was fine.
4. Conservative Economic thought: There really isn’t much. Rather conservatives attempt to legitimate any short term policy that will put money into the hands of the top .1%.
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