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The expropriation of nearly all of the Spanish company Repsol’s stake inArgentina’s energy producer YPF, announced in a vehementspeech by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, has raised legal alarmsworldwide. In fact, the move will not resolve the country’s energy problems inthe absence of enormous inflows of investment to the sector.
Repsolacquired complete control of YPF in 1999; in February 2008, it transferred partof its shares to the Petersen Group, which today holds 25%. Repsol currentlyholds 57%, with the rest owned by stock-market investors. The Argentinegovernment intends to expropriate 51%, leaving Repsol with a 6% stake.
Inthe 2008 sale of shares, the two majority stockholders agreed to distribute atleast 90% of future profits in cash. That decision was intended to allow thePetersen Group to service(支付（债务）利息) the debts to banks, and to Repsol itself, that itincurred with its share purchase, for which it made no initial payment.
Thisis an extraordinarily high dividend in the world oil industry. In the pastdecade, YPF’s reserves diminished significantly, along with those of most oilcompanies operating in Argentina,because investment in exploration was greatly reduced.
Atthe same time in Argentina, natural gas accounts for 51% of energy consumption, compared to32% for oil and barely 17% for coal, renewables, and hydroelectric and nuclearpower. Worldwide, gas accounts for barely a quarter of total energy consumption– for example, 27% in the United Statesand just 9% in neighboring Brazil.Argentinahas the world’s largest fleet of vehicles running on compressed natural gas;families use gas intensively; most electricity is generated with gas; and thepetrochemical industry is based on it.
Ofcourse, in a few other countries (Qatar, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates,Iran, and Russia), gas also accounts for more than half – or even more than 60%– of energy consumption. But there is an enormous difference: all of thesecountries have reserves that will last another 70-100 years. Argentina, bycontrast, is a highly gas-dependent country with diminishing reserves –equivalent to less than eight years of production.
Coveringthis drop in reserves – more than half of gas reserves and a fifth of oilreserves have been consumed – with imports implies an annual cost of more than$300 billion. Indeed, after two decades of cheap, abundant energy and exportsof surplus output, a new cycle of expensive, scarce, and imported energy hasbegun, as oil production has fallen by one-third since 1998, and gas productionby 15% since 2004.
Argentina’s greatest challenge today is to tryto regain energy self-sufficiency through significant investment in explorationon land, as well as in the Atlantic Ocean. Atthe same time, the country must modify its consumption model through greaterreliance on hydroelectric, nuclear, and wind energy. While there is greatpotential for new non-conventional resources, all of this is expensive,requiring annual investment of about 3% of GDP over the next five years.
Itis very likely that, in the short term, growing imports of expensive liquidnatural gas and other fuels will continue to exert pressure for change. Lastyear, the external energy deficit was more than $3 billion, and this year it isexpected to double.
Theimportant question is whether the Argentine government’s decision tonationalize 51% of YPF’s shares is the best way to recover self-sufficiency inoil and gas production, and to attract the capital needed for exploration anddevelopment of conventional reserves. Argentinahas particularly high potential for production of non-conventional gasresources as well, given that it holds the world’s third-highest level of suchreserves, after China andthe United States.But, as with the country’s conventional resources, these reserves will notproduce themselves.
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