http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21969100 How much gold is there in the world? By Ed Prior BBC News Continue reading the main story In today's Magazine Gunther, Christine and Otto Should high schools play American football? The battle to make Tommy the chimp a person The boy who grew up to be a suicide bomber Imagine if you were a super-villain who had taken control of all the world's gold, and had decided to melt it down to make a cube. How long would the sides be? Hundreds of metres, thousands even? Actually, it's unlikely to be anything like that size. Warren Buffett, one of the world's richest investors, says the total amount of gold in the world - the gold above ground, that is - could fit into a cube with sides of just 20m (67ft). But is that all there is? And if so, how do we know? A figure that is widely used by investors comes from Thomson Reuters GFMS, which produces an annual gold survey. Their latest figure for all the gold in the world is 171,300 tonnes - which is almost exactly the same as the amount in our super-villain's imaginary cube. A cube made of 171,300 tonnes would be about 20.7m (68ft) on each side. Or to put it another way, it would reach to 9.8m above ground level if exactly covering Wimbledon Centre Court. But not everyone agrees with the GFMS figures. Estimates range from 155,244 tonnes, marginally less than the GFMS figure, to about 16 times that amount - 2.5 million tonnes. That bigger figure would make a cube of sides 50m (166ft) long, or a column of gold towering 143m above Wimbledon centre court. So why are the figures so different? Part of the reason is that gold has been mined for a very long time - more than 6,000 years, according to gold historian Timothy Green. Continue reading the main story “ Start Quote All the gold that has been mined throughout history is still in existence ” James Turk Gold Money The first gold coins were minted in about 550 BC under King Croesus of Lydia - a province in modern-day Turkey - and quickly became accepted payment for merchants and mercenary soldiers around the Mediterranean. Up until 1492, the year Columbus sailed to America, GFMS estimates that 12,780 tonnes had been extracted. But one investor who looked at the research done in this area, James Turk, the founder of Gold Money, discovered what he regarded as a series of over-estimates . He believes that the primitive mining techniques used up to the Middle Ages mean that this figure is much too high, and that a more realistic total is just 297 tonnes. Tonnes of gold GFMS James Turk Pre-1492 12,780 297 Post-1492 158520 154947 Total 171,300 155,244 His figure for the overall amount of gold in the world is 155,244 tonnes - 16,056 tonnes, or 10% less, than the assessment by Thompson Reuters GFMS. A relatively small disparity, perhaps, but one that at today's prices comes to more than $950bn. His conclusions are accepted by some investors but such is the feeling between rival analysts that one competitor described Turk's figures as an alternative to the GFMS's "in the same way that Jedi is an alternative to Christianity". But there are others who think both sets of figures are too low. "In Tutankhamen's tomb alone they found that his coffin was made from 1.5 tonnes of gold, so imagine the gold that was found in the other tombs that were ransacked before records were taken of them," says Jan Skoyles of gold investment firm The Real Asset Company. While James Turk makes only minor adjustments to the GFMS figure for the amount of gold mined after 1492, Skoyles points out that even today China is "not particularly open" about how much gold it is mining. And in some countries, such as Colombia, "there's a lot of illegal mining going on", she says. She doesn't have an exact figure to offer, but one organisation that has tried to do some maths is the Gold Standard Institute. There is much gold still in the ground, like here in Democratic Republic of Congo Its experts believe that if we emptied our bank vaults and jewellery boxes, we'd find no less than 2.5 million tonnes of gold - though they admit that the evidence is somewhat sparse and the figure is a bit speculative. Continue reading the main story More or Less: Behind the stats Listen to More or Less on BBC Radio 4 and the World Service, or download the free podcast Download the More or Less podcast More stories from More or Less So who's right? Well, we don't know. In the end, all these numbers are made up of estimates added to estimates added to yet more estimates. Maybe they're all way off. The good news is that we are not likely to run out of gold any time soon. The US Geological Survey estimates there are 52,000 tonnes of minable gold still in the ground and more is likely to be discovered. The bad news is that the way we use gold is starting to change. Up to now it has never gone away. It has always been recycled. "All the gold that has been mined throughout history is still in existence in the above-ground stock. That means that if you have a gold watch, some of the gold in that watch could have been mined by the Romans 2,000 years ago," says James Turk. The way gold is being used in the technology industry, however, is different. The British Geological Survey states that about 12% of current world gold production finds its way to this sector, where it is often used in such small quantities, in each individual product, that it may no longer be economical to recycle it. In short, gold may be being "consumed" for the first time. More on This Story
The proliferation of market-based public service delivery raises concerns whether the vulnerable are dully served and what mechanisms may facilitate to serve them well. Using the dimensional publicness theory, the present study examines how ownership, public funding, control and policy environments shape organizational offerings of special substance abuse treatment programs targeting at the vulnerable groups. The multi-level analyses indicate that public funding and control are two major policy mechanisms toward the realization of public outcomes, much more so that ownership. Policy environments exercise differential impacts on organizations, with a higher level of publicness in policy environments leading private organizations to offer more special programs for the vulnerable groups. Further analyses show that policy mechanisms take on different parameters in serving different vulnerable groups, calling for contingent understanding of the dimensional publicness theory and its possible application. The study concludes with the discussion of theoretical development and its policy implications in serving the vulnerable groups with substance abuse treatment demands.
Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Russian forces moved Saturday to consolidate control over Crimea. Six Russian special forces' armored personnel carriers broke through the gates of Belbek Airbase, firing warning shots into the air, a spokesman for Ukraine's Ministry of Defense in Crimea, Vladislav Seleznev, told CNN. One journalist was injured in the attack, he said. Once inside, the Russians lined up the Ukrainians in one place, he said.Ukrainian forces on the base threw smoke bombs during the incident and retreated to the base's headquarters, according to Seleznev, in a Facebook posting.
Credit Shock Dead Ahead: China Money Formation Soars To 2-Year High As Delinquent Loans Surge By 29% Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2013 08:33 -0400 Capital Markets China Credit Conditions Gross Domestic Product Housing Market Housing Prices M2 non-performing loans Real estate Reality SocGen Yuan A month ago we pointed out that even as the Chinese credit bubble - at a record 240% of GDP on a consolidated basis - is now clearly out of control, the far more disturbing aspect of China's credit-fueled economy is the ever declining boost to economic growth as a result of every incremental dollar created. Indeed, as the economic response to "credit shock" becomes lower and lower, even as the inflationary impact lingers, the PBOC is caught between a stagnating rock and an inflationary hard place. Nonetheless, there are few options and with the shark-like need to continue growing, or at least moving, in order to prevent collapse, China did precisely what we expected it to do: boost credit growth even more despite the obvious tapering economic impact of such money creation. Sure enough, overnight China reported that its M2 growth accelerated in April from 15.7% in March, to 16.1% on a Y/Y basis: the fastest pace of credit creation in two years . Yes, the PBOC may not be creating money, but the Chinese pseudo-sovereign commercial banks, sure are, and at a pace that puts the rest of the world to shame. From SocGen: China’s M2 growth accelerated unexpectedly from 15.7% yoy in March to 16.1% yoy in April (Cons. 15.5%; SG 15.2%), the fastest pace in two years. Although a base effect was partly responsible, it is also the case that credit conditions continued to be very accommodative. The bigger than anticipated new bank lending figure – CNY 792.9bn or 26.9% yoy – is one piece of proof. Although the flow of total social financing normalised lower from CNY 2.5tn in March to CNY 1.7tn, the stock growth sped up further to 22.3% yoy from 21.6% yoy. And there are those who wonder why food prices soared in April despite the obviously contractionary tumble in the PPI... Furthermore, as we pointed out two days ago when we looked at the glaringly obvious export data manipulation, the idle-money inflationary pressures in China are likely far, far worse than what is reported, and with the SHCOMP unable to absorb excess liquidity due to its shallow nature (unlike the SP or the Nikkei225), and with the government establishing new and improved housing market curbs with every passing day, all this soaring hot money is about to spill over into the economy, and which point it will not be the USD that Chinese consumers flocks to in order to preserve their wealth (hint: see 2011 when China had its last episode of outright spiking inflation). But, as usually happens, that's just half of story. Since in China, unlike the G-0 world, loan creation is still mediated by commercial banks (at least as long as the PBOC continues to sit on the sidelines), and not sourced directly by the monetary authority which can absorb virtually infinite bad loans before faith in the currency is shaken, the problem of bad loans is starting to become quite tangible. As China Daily reports , citing PwC research, the total mount of overdue loans among China's top 10 listed banks exploded by 29% in one year, rising to $79.3 billion at the end of 2012 compared to 2011. Bad loans are weighing heavily on China's top commercial banks this year, and are likely to hit profitability and asset quality, a report released by PwC claimed on Thursday. The study revealed that total overdue loans among the country's top 10 listed banks had increased to 486.5 billion yuan ($79.3 billion) by the end of last year, up 29 percent from 2011. The average overdue loan ratio rose to 1.21 percent from 1.06 percent, "a considerable deterioration", said Jimmy Leung, PwC's banking and capital markets leader for China. In some regions, the ratio reached 5 to 7 percent, he added. The ratio of special-mention loans, debts that could potentially turn sour, among the five largest joint stock banks rose to 1.03 percent in 2012 from 2011's 0.93 percent. Chinese banks follow the international five-category system that classifies loans as "pass", "special-mention", "substandard", "doubtful" and "loss", in line with their inherent risks. The last three groups are regarded as non-performing loans. And here's another reason why China finds itself in a dead end dilemma with no way out: on one hand it does not want any more housing inflation for obvious bubble reasons. On the other, any collapse in housing prices will crash its banking sector. What to do? "The economic uncertainties and tightened rules on the real estate market would pose a tougher test for commercial lenders this year," added Raymond Yung, PwC's financial services leader for China. "If property prices show big declines, bank lending would be in jeopardy....It's time for Chinese banks to strengthen their management of collecting repayments, and writing off more soured loans more positively." Only they can't, because that process would require the full disclosure of just how bad the true delinquent loan state of the commercial banking sector is. And since this is China, where economic data is always misreported by orders of magnitude, one truly is scared to look beneath the surface, and where such an event can be delayed (not avoided), only as long as new loan creation is soaring and is sufficiently high to offset the conversion of performing loans into NPLs. Which, perhaps explains, why April new credit soared to the highest in two years. And this in turn, will be curbed too, once inflation - that ultimate arbiter of reality - comes roaring back. In the meantime, and as always, we take delight in all amusing gold "smashes", "crashes", or whatever else they are called, as we continue to recall just what asset the Chinese bought with both hands and feet in all markets - physical and paper - in 2011, when China's inflation went off the charts. Because it wasn't the USD, and because we know that this time will not be different. Average: 4.857145 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 7 votes) Tweet - advertisements - Change is about to catch Republicans by surprise. A financial journalist says a scandal brewing in DC will catch most Republicans by surprise, and will alter the political system. 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The 15 Best Things Paul Tudor Jones Has Ever Said About Trading "The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge." "Intellectual capital will always trump financial capital." "The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE's?" (P/E is price to earnings ratio.) "Every day I assume every position I have is wrong." "Losers average losers." "There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market." “You adapt, evolve, compete or die.” "Trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked." "If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess." “The whole world is simply nothing more than a flow chart for capital.” "Failure was a key element to my life’s journey." "Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt." “After a while size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on $10,000 or $100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.” “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." "At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control." TraderPaul Tudor Jones.... http://video.sina.com.cn/v/b/114542530-1500481971.html
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