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英文文献：Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia-公共政策的长期影响:俄罗斯的内生酒精偏好和预期寿命
英文文献作者：Lorenz Kueng,Evgeny Yakovlev
英文文献摘要：
We use two quasi-natural experiments in the 1980s and 1990s to identify how public policies affect important long-run outcomes by changing preferences. Large but short-lived shocks to product availability in Russia shifted young consumers' long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol. The resulting large cohort differences in current alcohol consumption shares decades after the interventions ended explain about 60% of the recent decrease in male mortality based on both micro-level and aggregate estimates. Mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years based on our analysis. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies.
我们利用20世纪80年代和90年代的两个准自然实验，来确定公共政策如何通过改变偏好来影响重要的长期结果。对俄罗斯产品供应的巨大但短暂的冲击，使年轻消费者的长期偏好从烈性酒转向了清淡酒。在干预措施结束几十年后，导致的当前酒精消费份额的巨大队列差异，解释了近期男性死亡率在微观水平和总体估计上下降约60%的原因。根据我们的分析，未来20年，死亡率将继续下降23%。因此，只关注同期影响的项目影响评估会严重低估这类公共政策的总体影响。
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