UBS 瑞银:中国市场-重回现实
The New China – Back to the Real World
UBS Investment Research Asian Economic Perspectives
56页 英文 1 March 2007
China has been a very unusual and unique place for much of the past decade: a combination of world-beating manufacturing and painful rural stagnation,external imbalances and domestic deflation, enormous volatility and record high growth. However, we also believe China’s unique days are ending, and that the mainland economy is about to become much more “normal”
In this report we lay out eight key macro themes we think investors should be watching for over the medium term, from 2007 to 2010:
The end of the boom/bust economy
The end of cheap labor
The return of Chinese farmers
The return of inflation
The end of manufacturing domination
Back to balanced trade
The end of “renminbi fixation”
The beginning of China’s rebalancing