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No news is good news for now
蓛 The relative stability in asset markets largely reflects the lack of any real news on
the key risks in Greece and the peripheral euro area. The event calendar in
Europe may reinforce this stability with a likely approval of the EU Fiscal Treaty at
the Irish referendum on Thursday. We would view any relief in asset markets as
fleeting, however, with uncertainty likely to remain high as Greeks head to the
polls and with the issue of credible bank recapitalizations in the euro area still
unresolved. US economic prospects will also be a key driver of markets heading
into payroll Friday. Recent news has been somewhat negative – consumer
confidence has fallen significantly since last month because of the employment
situation (markets expected an increase, Full Story), and home prices surprised
to the downside (Full Story). We continue to favor a more defensive approach in
asset markets – in FX, that means being long USD and JPY.
GLOBAL+MACRO+DAILY%3aNo+news+is+good+news+for+now.pdf
(136.58 KB)
Delayed+EU+response+hurts+global+growth.pdf
(170.87 KB)
Delayed EU response hurts global growth
Risk sentiment has stabilized, but markets continue to re-price a slowing growth
outlook. Sovereign 10y interest rates in safe havens keep rallying, driven by real
rates, not breakeven inflation, and oil prices remain on a steep downtrend. Equities
seem to trade sideways, trapped between a slower growth story and a break in the
risk sell-off.
US non-farm payroll data seem to be the next market focus. We and consensus
expect a net job creation number of +150K for May, but recent data releases add
downside risks. The Chicago PMI dropped to 52.7 in May from 56.2 in April, which
was lower than we (57.0) and the consensus (56.8) were expecting (Full Story).
Together with a downward revision to GDP growth to 1.9% q/q (saar), in line with
our forecast (Full Story), these number threaten the US growth outlook. In addition,
jobless claims rose mod
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