请教一个workforce分配的问题

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问题 假设有这样一个项目。项目的实施方是一个美国的一个大型的电力供应公司，在美国不同的地方拥有多个电厂。该公司计划对各个电厂进行改造。改造的过程中被改造的电厂需要停产，原来该地区需要的电力需要从其他地区调配。改造应该是一个一个进行。大概的项目就是这样。 我拿到的问题是，要对需要的人力做出规划的话，需要进行哪些分析，有哪些合适的demand planning 的software。公司对JDA和Oracle的Demantra做了对比分析。现在给我的问题是，这些软件是否能完成任务，是否有更好的软件，是否有必要购买，不买软件是否能完成任务。 我基本没有头绪，希望大家指点。该怎么入手。我自己理解这是一个operation management的问题。老板却一直说demand forecasting，JDA和Demantra也是forecasting的软件吧。我感觉没有历史数据的话，哪有什么forecasting。

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关键词：WORKFORCE Force Work For Forecasting software planning demand Oracle 美国

It should be a problem in Operations Management area. However, if your boss calls it a forecasting problem, it is a forecasting problem. Whatever he calls is fine and it is not important.

It is not clear what you mean "workforce assignment". Does it mean when you close and upgrade one facility, all workforce in this facility has to be assigned to other facilities? Or other facilities which take care of demand by this facility need to hire more people? What is your objective function? Does the order of closing facilities play a role here?

Overall, it should be able to formulate it as an integer program problem. Depends on how many facilities you have, if only a few, you might be able to solve it using EXCEL; otherwise, you need comercial software such as CPLEX. Or maybe you can solve one facility by one facility.
Hope this is helpful. Good luck

多谢回复！非常有用！ >1. It is not clear what you mean "workforce assignment". Does it mean when you close and upgrade one facility, all >workforce in this facility has to be assigned to other facilities? Or other facilities which take care of demand by this facility >need to hire more people? It means how many people need to be hired to do the upgrade for one power plant. So far, the existing staff is not considered. They may be relocated to other places or merged to the new group or just laid off. >2.What is your objective function? It seems time is not a major issue. Probably they want to minimize the cost. >3.Does the order of closing facilities play a role here?   Yes. Because the plants are different. Some are traditional, some are nuclear. Therefore, the order may cause difference. Anyway, I agree with you. If the problem is clearly defined, it could be solved by simple software such as Excel or CPLEX. If the conditions are dynamicly changing, it may require ERP systems. I did not see a lot of sense in JDA or Demantra. Correct me if I am wrong. ***我的任务不是解决这个问题，而是给公司一个关于软件guideline。头倾向于不买这些软件，希望用Excel解决问题。JDA和Demantra都是million $级别的软件。*******

多谢回复！非常有用！

>1. It is not clear what you mean "workforce assignment". Does it mean when you close and upgrade one facility, all >workforce in this facility has to be assigned to other facilities? Or other facilities which take care of demand by this facility >need to hire more people?

It means how many people need to be hired to do the upgrade for one power plant. So far, the existing staff is not considered. They may be relocated to other places or merged to the new group or just laid off.

>2.What is your objective function?
It seems time is not a major issue. Probably they want to minimize the cost.

>3.Does the order of closing facilities play a role here?  
Yes. Because the plants are different. Some are traditional, some are nuclear. Therefore, the order may cause difference.

Anyway, I agree with you. If the problem is clearly defined, it could be solved by simple software such as Excel or CPLEX. If the conditions are dynamicly changing, it may require ERP systems.

I did not see a lot of sense in JDA or Demantra.

Correct me if I am wrong.

***我的任务不是解决这个问题，而是给公司一个关于软件guideline。头倾向于不买这些软件，希望用Excel解决问题。JDA和Demantra都是million $级别的软件。*******

pingguagain 发表于 2012-6-21 22:53
It should be a problem in Operations Management area. However, if your boss calls it a forecasting p ...

>However, if your boss calls it a forecasting problem, it is a forecasting problem. Whatever he calls is fine >and it is not important.

他们不光这样叫，他们选software也是以此为基础的。我看他们做的报告，比较的是JDA，Demantra的价格，另外也提到了SAS。而且请JDA做的Slide里边的例子，就是饮料销售的预测。完全是一个时间序列分析的典型例子。和我们的这个project完全不搭界。你看这几个软件能做这个问题么？

redkunkun 发表于 2012-6-22 00:34
>However, if your boss calls it a forecasting problem, it is a forecasting problem. Whatever he c ...

My major is Operations Research, so I am not familiar with those softwares. My opinion is if you don't know your problem very well, those softwares are useless. They might can produce some fancy tables or figures. However, I think it is just garbage in, garbage out. The reason that companies are keeping spending lots of money on softwares is those people always have execuse even they do a very bad job: "No forecast is accurate".

pingguagain 发表于 2012-6-22 12:54
My major is Operations Research, so I am not familiar with those softwares. My opinion is if you d ...

Haha. Exactly. That is the exact thing I hear from collegeas and bosses. "If I could do it accurately, I will be in Vegas."
I agree with you. It should be an Integer Programming Problem. Now I need to find a similar example and formulate a simplified model. Any suggestions will be appreciated. If you happen to know a similar case, point me to the right place.

Thanks a lot.

redkunkun 发表于 2012-6-23 03:59
Haha. Exactly. That is the exact thing I hear from collegeas and bosses. "If I could do it accurat ...

Professor Berman has a paper called

Scheduling Workforce and Workflow in a Service Factory

You may find some references from there.

大家都好厉害哦