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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Chinese data released Thursday showed price pressures were abating as a weakening economy affected growth in industrial production and consumption, strengthening calls for Beijing to respond by further loosening its monetary policy.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-inflation-cools-leaving-room-for-easing-2012-08-08?dist=beforebell
A Gome electric-appliance shop in Beijing
Aided by falling food prices, the consumer-price index rose 1.8% in July from the year-ago period, the lowest print since January 2010, according to data from FactSet, and down from June’s 2.2% increase.
The monthly producer-price index dropped 2.9%, accelerating from a 2.1% deflation recorded in June, figures released Thursday morning by the National Bureau of Statistics showed.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected the CPI to rise 1.7%, and the PPI to drop 2.5%.
“The data reflect downward pressure on prices coming from weaker commodities .... The numbers confirm that the door for more monetary easing is open,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior economist at Crédit Agricole.
Several economists agreed that more easing measures were imminent, but differed on how much, and on the choice of a policy tool.
Kowalczyk said he expects a cut in bank-reserve requirements soon, but that room for further easing was limited as July will likely mark the bottom for China’s CPI inflation in year-on-year terms.
HSBC economists said they expect another 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the Chinese central bank, “along with other monetary and fiscal measures.”
IHS Global Insight economists led by Xianfang Ren said that while the authorities needed to act, it didn’t necessarily have to be through another rate cut or a reduction in the RRR, and that local governments were likely to boost government investment.
“In this respect, it matters less how far inflation falls, and more how much investment rises,” they said.
Chinese stocks in Hong Kong and Shanghai were firmly higher after a choppy morning session, on expectations for an accommodative policy stance from Beijing.
The Shanghai Composite , which dropped earlier in the day, ended the day 0.6% higher to complete a five-day winning streak, while the Hang Seng Index extended gains in the afternoon to close 1% higher.
Meanwhile, data released separately by the NBS Thursday afternoon showed monthly industrial output increased 9.2% in July from the year-ago month.
That was lower than a 9.5% improvement in June and fell short of a 9.8% expansion expected in a Reuters poll of economists.
The data also showed retail sales for the month rose 13.1%, weakening from a 13.7% increase in June and missing estimates for a 13.7% growth.
The NBS figures also showed fixed-asset investments in nonrural China climbed 20.4% in the first seven months of 2012, compared with expectations for a 20.5% increase in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists.
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