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JP 摩根：China Daily Views
Asia Pacific Equity Research
20 March 2007 49页
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China Minsheng Banking
Upgrade
Overweight
Previous Rating: Neutral
Entering new growth phase, upgrade to OW Rmb11.90
19 March 2007
Price Target: Rmb14.50
China
Banks
Samuel ChenAC
(852) 2800-8557
samuel.s.chen@jpmorgan.com
Sunil Garg
(852) 2800-8518
sunil.garg@jpmorgan.com
2
6
10
14
Rmb
Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07
Price Performance
600016.SS share price (Rmb
R-CHIP (rebased)
YTD -1M -3M -12M
Absolute 8.1% -16.2% 21.6% 211.3%
Relative 20.0% -7.7% 23.0% 169.1%
Source: RIMES, Reuters.
China Minsheng Banking (Reuters: 600016.SS, Bloomberg: 600016 CH)
Year-end Dec (Rmb in mn) FY04A FY05A FY06A FY07E FY08E
Operating Profit 4,202 5,699 7,395 10,557 14,532
Net Profit 2,007 2,738 3,758 5,383 8,351
EPS (Rmb) 0.20 0.27 0.37 0.46 0.62
Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.20 0.27 0.37 0.46 0.62
DPS (Rmb) 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.07 0.12
EPS growth (%) 43.2% 34.5% 36.8% 24.8% 35.4%
ROE (%) 17.9% 19.4% 21.6% 17.5% 15.1%
P/E (x) 59.2 44.0 32.2 25.8 19.0
BVPS (Rmb) 1.26 1.52 1.90 3.46 4.96
P/BV (x) 9.5 7.8 6.3 3.4 2.4
Div. yield (%) 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0%
52-week range (Rmb) 14.07 - 3.43
Market cap (Rmb mn) 112,143
Market cap ($ mn) 14,498
Shares outstanding (mn)
Fiscal Year End Dec
Price (Rmb) 11.90
Date Of Price 19 Mar 07
Avg daily value (Rmb mn) 1,589.2
Avg daily value ($ mn) 205.5
Avg daily vol (Rmb mn) 241,777.0
R-CHIP 9,113
Exchange Rate 7.74
Source: Company data, Reuters, JPMorgan estimates.
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 47 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including investment banking relationships.
JPMorgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
• Top pick among A-share banks: We upgrade Minsheng to
Overweight with a new Dec-07 price target of Rmb14.5. We
believe the bank will continue to deliver robust profit growth
(43% CAGR, EPS CAGR 30%) in the next three years through
organic growth as well as M&A, and revenue diversification.
Minsheng replaces SPDB as our top pick among A-share banks.
• We believe incrementally the bank may acquire growth
through takeover of city commercial banks, which typically has
low L/D ratio and thus help improve Minsheng’s funding.
Meanwhile, we expect its aggressive revenue diversification;
focus on trade finance and SME banking to improve profitability.
• 2006 profit up 37%, earnings forecasts raised. 2006 profit was
8% above our estimate. We updated our model to reflect its recent
A-share placement and planned H-share offering. We believe its
strengthening capital base will support Minsheng’s M&A as well
as geographic expansion. In light of better NIM, fee business
expansion and strong macro-condition, we revised up 2007
earnings by 12% and 2008 profit by 22%.
• Our new DDM-based Dec-07 price target is Rmb14.5,
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