发帖
雷达卡
International Studies of Economics
Estimating Treatment Effects With Limited Exogeneity: A Machine Learning Approach to Selection Bias
Rui Sun, Shiyi Chen
有限外生性条件下的处理效应估计：一种应对选择性偏误的机器学习方法
Revisiting the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Crime: A Global Analysis
Yuan Chen, Zheming Liang, Ciqiao Wang, Zhengle Xu
重新审视外国直接投资对犯罪的影响：一项全球性分析
Shiyi Wu, Rui Niu
应对不确定性：贸易政策不确定性对中国上市公司全球价值链攀升的影响机制研究
Coordination Effect of Oligopolists' Multimarket Contact
Zuo Yu, Tianyu Luo
寡头企业多市场接触的协调效应
Qingen Gai, Zhiqiang He, Fangfang Su, Wencheng Zhao
中国农村集体经济发展对全民共同富裕的影响、机制与模式
Yuying Jin, Sunyao Xia
央行沟通能否引导个体宏观经济预期？来自中国随机信息实验的证据
摘要：
Estimating Treatment Effects With Limited Exogeneity: A Machine Learning Approach to Selection Bias
Abstract: This paper presents a novel method for estimating treatment effects in cases where prior knowledge of the exogeneity of the treatment variable is limited. We employ a machine learning technique, double selection via Lasso, to identify a robust set of control variables without requiring prior assumptions about their specific identities or functional forms. Our approach then leverages the principle that, under certain conditions, the selection on observables can provide bounds on the selection bias from unobservables. To illustrate the effectiveness of this method, we apply it to an empirical analysis examining the impact of legalized abortion on crime rates.
有限外生性条件下的处理效应估计：一种应对选择性偏误的机器学习方法
摘要：本文提出一种创新方法，用于在处理变量外生性先验知识有限的情况下估计处理效应。我们采用机器学习技术——基于Lasso的双重选择法——在无需事先对控制变量的具体身份或函数形式作出假设的情况下，识别出一组稳健的控制变量集合。该方法基于以下原理：在特定条件下，可观测变量的选择可为不可观测变量产生的选择性偏误提供界限。为验证该方法的有效性，我们将其应用于实证分析，考察合法堕胎对犯罪率的影响。
Revisiting the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Crime: A Global Analysis
Abstract: Drawing upon extensive literature on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) spillovers, we hypothesize that FDI inflow represents a double-edged sword with respect to crime in host countries. On one hand, FDI can contribute to economic growth and social well-being by infusing capital and knowledge into the host countries, thereby potentially inhibiting criminal activities, as economic theories of crime suggest. On the other hand, the inflow of FDI can also trigger a process of crowding out, leading to the displacement of local firms, job losses, and subsequently fueling crime. By constructing a global data set of property crime and violent crime, this study demonstrates that FDI inflow inhibits crime in lower- and higher-income countries, whereas it tends to promote crime in middle-income countries. These effects are more significant for violent crime than for property crime. Notably, despite income levels, inequality in host countries amplifies the inhibiting influence of FDI inflow on property crime. These findings present a novel perspective on the social spillover effects of FDI and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to mitigate crime. Additionally, this study underscores the importance for middle-income countries to establish efficient social welfare systems to counterbalance the potential crime-promoting effect of FDI.
重新审视外国直接投资对犯罪的影响：一项全球性分析
摘要：基于FDI溢出效应的大量文献，本文假设FDI流入对东道国犯罪问题具有“双刃剑”效应。一方面，正如犯罪经济学理论所示，FDI通过向东道国注入资本与知识促进经济增长和社会福祉，从而可能抑制犯罪活动。另一方面，FDI流入可能引发挤出效应，导致本土企业被取代、就业岗位流失，进而助长犯罪。本文构建了涵盖全球范围的财产犯罪与暴力犯罪数据集，实证表明：FDI流入在低收入和高收入国家抑制犯罪，而在中等收入国家则倾向于促进犯罪发生。这种影响在暴力犯罪方面显著强于财产犯罪。值得注意的是，无论收入水平如何，东道国的收入不平等都会放大FDI流入对财产犯罪的抑制作用。上述发现为理解FDI的社会溢出效应提供了新视角，为寻求降低犯罪率的政策制定者提供了宝贵启示。此外，本研究强调，中等收入国家有必要建立高效的社会福利体系，以抵消FDI可能带来的犯罪促进效应。
Abstract: This study is based on real options theory and uses a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2000 to 2016 to investigate the dynamic process and mechanisms by which trade policy uncertainty affects the upgrading of enterprises within the global value chain (GVC). The article finds that trade policy uncertainty has a positive forcing effect on enterprise GVC upgrading. In an environment of trade policy uncertainty, factors affecting enterprise upgrading in the GVC include both internal and external risks. Internal risks encompass the understanding of multinational strategies by executives and operational risks. External risks include the vulnerability of supply chains and dependence on cross-border profitability. The interaction effect reveals that correct internal decision-making and risk avoidance in transnational operations are far more important than dealing with external risks. Additionally, the positive impetus brought about by trade policy uncertainty is more pronounced in private enterprises, non-high-tech firms, and those with weaker financial constraints.
应对不确定性：贸易政策不确定性对中国上市公司全球价值链攀升的影响机制研究
摘要：本文基于实物期权理论，以2000-2016年中国上市公司样本为研究样本，系统考察贸易政策不确定性对企业在全球价值链（Global Value Chain, GVC）中升级的动态影响过程及其作用机制。研究发现，贸易政策不确定性对企业GVC升级具有正向驱动效应。在贸易政策不确定环境下，影响企业GVC升级的因素既包含内部风险也涉及外部风险。其中，内部风险涵盖企业高管对跨国经营战略的认知及企业运营风险；外部风险则包含供应链脆弱性与对跨境盈利的依赖性。交互效应表明：准确的内部决策与跨国运营中的风险规避，远比应对外部风险更为关键。此外，贸易政策不确定性带来的积极推动作用在民营企业、非高科技企业及财务约束较弱的企业中更为显著。
Coordination Effect of Oligopolists' Multimarket Contact
Abstract: In this article, we examine the coordination effect of oligopolists' multimarket contact with asymmetric cost. We extend a model of infinitely repeated multimarket contact games with “symmetric advantage” in the seminal paper of Bernheim and Whinston (The RAND Journal of Economics 1990; 21(1):1–26). We consider Stackelberg and Cournot competition as the stage game while Bernheim and Whinston consider Bertrand competition. Different from Bernheimand Whinston, we show that collusive sustainability under multimarket contact is the same to single-market if the stage games are Stackelberg competition. Our research has policy implications for the antimonopoly review of the merger and detecting cartels.
寡头企业多市场接触的协调效应
摘要：本文分析成本不对称条件下寡头企业多市场接触的协调效应，拓展了Bernheim和Whinston（1990）提出的具有“对称优势”的无限期重复多市场接触博弈模型。 Bernheim和Whinston （1990）分析了寡头企业进行伯川德竞争（Bertrand competition）时多市场接触对合谋稳定性的影响，并证明：与单一市场相比多市场接触提高了合谋稳定性。本文分别在斯塔克尔伯格竞争和古诺竞争（Stackelberg and Cournot competition）情况下分析了多市场接触对合谋稳定性的影响，证明了当阶段博弈形式为斯塔克尔伯格竞争时，与单一市场相比，多市场接触并未提高合谋稳定性。该结论对经营者集中审查及合谋的识别具有政策含义。
Abstract: As a fundamental tenet of socialism with Chinese characteristics, pursuing common prosperity for all entails reducing urban-rural disparities while simultaneously increasing rural household income. This study utilizes interview and survey data from the “Chinese Thousand Villages Survey” conducted by the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics in 2019 and 2021. We explore the extent to which advancing China's rural collective economy contributes to uplifting rural household incomes by quantitatively assessing the impacts and mechanisms through which rural collective economic development influences rural household income. Our findings reveal that advancing rural collective economies substantially elevates rural household income levels. Specifically, for every 10% increase in rural collective operating income, rural household total annual income rises by 3.08%. Furthermore, rural collective economic development fosters household income growth through the mechanisms of labor allocation, industrial advancement, and revenue distribution. We also use case studies to provide a practical reference for collective economic development patterns, delineating the quintessential patterns of collective economics in China using real-world examples. We categorize these into four distinct patterns: natural scenery development, rural culture development, land resources leasing, and rural industrial development. This study evaluates the significant role that rural collective economic development plays in augmenting rural household income, offering insights that may serve as a reference for realizing common prosperity.
中国农村集体经济发展对全民共同富裕的影响、机制与模式
摘要：作为中国特色社会主义的基本纲领，实现全民共同富裕意味着缩小城乡差距的同时提升农村家庭收入。本文基于上海财经大学2019年与2021年开展的“中国千村调查”访谈及问卷数据，通过定量评估农村集体经济发展对农村家庭收入的影响及其作用机制，深入探讨了推进中国农村集体经济对提升农村家庭收入的贡献程度。研究发现，发展农村集体经济能显著提升农村家庭收入水平。具体而言，农村集体经营性收入每增长10%，农村居民家庭年总收入即增加3.08%。此外，农村集体经济发展通过劳动力配置、产业升级和收益分配三大机制促进农户收入增长。我们还通过案例研究为集体经济发展模式提供实践参考，基于真实案例勾勒出中国集体经济的典型模式，将其归纳为四大类别：自然景观开发型、乡村文化开发型、土地资源租赁型、乡村产业发展型。本研究评估了农村集体经济发展在增加农村家庭收入方面的重要作用，所提供的见解可为实现共同富裕提供参考。
Abstract: Communication with the market to guide public expectations has become a pivotal monetary policy instrument forcentral banks worldwide. Therefore, assessing the efficacy of communication in influencing personal expectations is essential for central banks. To examine the effectiveness of communication by the People's Bank of China (PBC), we conduct a randomized experiment in which subjects receive excerpts from China's Monetary Policy Implementation Report (MPIR) for the third quarter of 2022 as information interventions. This study exploits the exogenous variation generated by the treatment to explore how central bank communication influences individuals' expectations regarding the macroeconomy. The key findings are as follows: First, positive communication from the central bank can steer individuals' expectations about the likelihood of a recession in line with the central bank's objectives, and this effect is more pronounced among those who read financial news less frequently. Second, clear and specific retrospective communication is more effective in guiding expectations about the macroeconomy than vague and complex forward-looking communication. Third, PBC communication affects individuals' consumption plans, supporting the central bank's economic growth objectives.
央行沟通能否引导个体宏观经济预期？来自中国随机信息实验的证据
摘要：与市场沟通进而引导公众预期已成为全球央行的重要货币政策工具。因此，评估央行沟通在影响个体预期方面的有效性对央行至关重要。为检验中国人民银行（PBC）沟通的有效性，本文以2022年第三季度《中国货币政策执行报告》摘要为信息干预材料，对受试者开展了一项随机实验。利用由信息干预产生的外生变化，本研究考察了央行沟通如何影响个体针对宏观经济形势的预期。研究主要发现如下：首先，央行积极的沟通能有效引导个体对经济衰退概率的预期，使其与央行政策目标趋于一致，且该效应在较少阅读财经新闻的群体中更为显著。其次，央行清晰具体的回顾性沟通比模糊复杂的前瞻性沟通更能有效引导个体宏观经济预期。第三，中国央行沟通还会影响个人消费计划，从而在一定程度上支持央行实现促进经济增长的政策目标。
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