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英文文献：Fiscal Space under Demographic Shift-人口结构变化下的财政空间
英文文献作者：Christine Ma,Chung Tran
英文文献摘要：
In this paper we quantitatively explore implications of ageing demographic structure for government revenue raising capacity through lens of fiscal space. We base our analysis on dynamic general equilibrium, overlapping generations model calibrated to data from Japan and USA.We first map out fundamental-based fiscal limit using the Laffer curve approach, and then compute fiscal space in terms of budgetary room between the current revenue and the maximum revenue defined by the peak of Laffer curves. We demonstrate that the evolution of underlying demographic structures plays an important role in shaping a country’s fiscal limit and fiscal space. There will be significant contractions in fiscal space in Japan and USA when the two countries enter their late stage of demographic transition in 2040. In particular, the results from the model calibrated to Japan indicates that an increase in old-age dependency ratio to over 70 percent can reduce Japan’s fiscal space by 36 percent. When factoring in the increased fiscal cost of existing commitments to the age pension program, the net fiscal space for Japan turns negative.
本文通过财政空间的视角，定量地探讨了人口结构老龄化对政府提高收入能力的影响。我们的分析基于动态一般均衡，世代交叠模型校准日本和美国的数据。首先，我们使用拉弗曲线方法绘制出基于基本原则的财政极限，然后根据预算空间计算当前收入与拉弗曲线峰值所定义的最大收入之间的财政空间。我们证明，潜在人口结构的演变在塑造一个国家的财政限制和财政空间方面发挥着重要作用。日本和美国在2040年进入人口转型后期时，财政空间将出现明显收缩。特别的是，对日本进行校准的模型的结果表明，将老年人抚养比率提高到70%以上，可以使日本的财政空间减少36%。如果考虑到老年养老金计划的现有承诺所增加的财政成本，日本的净财政空间将变为负值。
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