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All.About.Market.Timing.The.Easy.Way.to.Get.Started [推广有奖]

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yangyu_kev 发表于 2005-4-22 04:26:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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关键词:Started market timing About Start market Started timing Get Easy

yangyu_kev 发表于 2005-4-22 04:29:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群

LESLIE N. MASONSON McGraw-Hill New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto

Copyright © 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 0-07-143608-1 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-141331-6 All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales, at george_hoare@mcgraw-hill.com or (212) 904-4069. TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw-Hill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill’s prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms. THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS”. McGRAW-HILL AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTHERWISE, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hill has no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work. Under no circumstances shall McGraw-Hill and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise. DOI: 10.1036/0071436081

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yangyu_kev 发表于 2005-4-22 04:30:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
C O N T E N T S
Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction xiii
PART 1
MARKET-TIMING BASICS
Chapter 1
The Stock Market = Bull Markets + Bear Markets 3
Chapter 2
The Buy-and-Hold Myth 23
Chapter 3
Market-Timing: What You Need to Know39
Chapter 4
Ten Indicators to Determine the Market’s Health 51
Chapter 5
Specialized Mutual Funds: Index, Sector, and Leveraged Funds 75
Chapter 6
Exchange-Traded Funds 89
PART 2
MARKET-TIMING STRATEGIES
Chapter 7
Calendar-Based Investing: The Best Six Months Strategy 99
vii
For more information about this title, click here.
Copyright 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. Click Here for Terms of Use.
Chapter 8
Combining Presidential Cycle Years with Seasonality 119
Chapter 9
Using Moving Averages 131
Chapter 10
Value Line 4 Percent Strategy 153
Chapter 11
Nasdaq Composite 6 Percent Strategy 183
PART 3
MARKET-TIMING RESOURCES
Chapter 12
Market-Timing Resources: Newsletters, Web Sites, and Advisors 193
Chapter 13
Market-Timing Software 217
Epilogue 227
Bibliography and Web Sites 231
Index 235
About the Author 245

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yangyu_kev 发表于 2005-4-22 04:31:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
Market timing is not a fun vocation or avocation. It is tough and
ugly. I know this well, because I’ve been a market timer in the
trenches since 1983, both as an investor and as an advisor.
Timing requires thick skin and iron resolve. Because it is not
understood, market timing is almost universally scorned on Wall
Street.
Yet market timing is an important tool for investors. When it
is used consistently over long periods of time, timing can dramatically
improve returns while it reduces risk, as Leslie Masonson has
demonstrated repeatedly in this book.
If this book is studied by the establishment financial media, it
can help to reduce a tide of misguided negative articles about timing.
Too many financial writers have discovered they can easily “prove”
that timing doesn’t work and can’t possibly work. However, those
authors rarely specify any measurable definition of what would be
necessary for a strategy to qualify as one that “works.”
I’ve found that timing is 100 percent successful at reducing
market risk, by periodically getting investors out of the market.
Every day your assets are in a money market fund, that’s a day they
are not at risk in the market. If timing keeps you on the sidelines 25
percent of the time, timing has reduced your risk by 25 percent.
Results from timing almost never look like returns from a buyand-
hold approach. This can be disconcerting and upsetting. But
to a long-term investor, this noncorrelation amounts to a form of
diversification.
Why do so many people believe that timing doesn’t work? I
believe the answer is twofold. First, most investors who undertake
market timing are not prepared for the rigorous discipline it
requires. They quickly become discouraged when they discover that
timing systems are statistically “wrong” much more often than they
are “right.”
ix
Copyright 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. Click Here for Terms of Use.
Second, market timing is misunderstood. No investing rule is
more fundamental than this: Don’t invest in something unless you
understand it. I think the reason timing disappoints so many
investors is that they don’t understand it.
Masonson’s book will help remedy that. He has put together
the information and the tools that investors need to make timing
work for them. He has taken a complex topic and made it accessible
for real people.
The biggest problem facing most investors is that they need
the potential growth they can get from owning equities—while
at the same time equities are quite volatile—too much so, for most
people.
As far as I know, there are only two solutions that make sense.
One is to allocate as much as necessary of a portfolio to fixedincome
funds. This brings stability, but at the cost of the long-term
returns of equities. The second solution, the topic of this book, is
market timing.
As this book shows, mechanical market timing makes it possible
for investors to achieve the returns they need at lower volatility.
And that makes it easier for those investors to stay the course.
Almost all my own investments are governed by market timing.
Even if I could “know” that I could get a better long-term
return without timing, I am just not comfortable with a buy-andhold
approach. I have worked hard all my life to accumulate assets,
and I’m simply not willing to passively let the market (which, in
effect, is all other investors) take them away.
This book is for investors who share my conservative
approach, who believe, as I do, that hanging onto their money is as
important as making it grow. In this excellent guide, those
investors will find everything they need to determine if timing is
for them—and if they have what it takes to be successful.
Paul Merriman
Paul Merriman is founder and president
of Merriman Capital Management
in Seattle, and is author of two books
on investing.
x FOREWORD

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yangyu_kev 发表于 2005-4-22 04:33:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群

不说了!详细介绍为了使大家不花冤枉钱。

大家觉得物有所值就对了!

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