发帖
雷达卡
英文文献：Working Paper 173 - Production and Conflict in Risky Elections-工作文件173 -危险选举中的生产和冲突
英文文献作者：Kjell Hausken,Mthuli Ncube
英文文献摘要：
An incumbent allocates in period 1 of a two period game, a resource into production, fighting with the challenger, and producing public goods, which impact the probability of winning an election. In period 2 the incumbent may accept the election result, or a coalition or standoff may follow. We analyze the strategic choices. Econometric analysis of 653 African elections 1960-2010 shows that the incumbent wins with no contestation 64%, coalition 6%, and standoff 2%. The incumbent loses and accepts defeat 16%, coalition 12%, and standoff 0%. The impact of economic performance, education, political factors, natural resources, former-colonizer, etc, are scrutinized.
在任者在两期博弈的第1期分配资源，将资源投入生产，与挑战者战斗，生产公共产品，影响选举获胜的概率。在第二阶段，现任总统可以接受选举结果，或者联盟或僵局可能随之而来。分析了战略选择。对1960-2010年653次非洲选举的计量分析显示，现任总统以无竞争者、联合政府6%和僵局2%获胜。现任总统输了并接受了16%的失败，联盟12%，僵局0%。考察了经济绩效、教育、政治因素、自然资源、前殖民者等因素的影响。
京公网安备 11010802022788号
