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英文文献：Prices of French Icon Wines and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Danish Wine Auctions-法国葡萄酒的价格和商业周期:来自丹麦葡萄酒拍卖的经验证据
英文文献作者：Jan Bentzen,Valdemar Smith,S??ren Leth-S??rensen
英文文献摘要：
During the last decades auctions of selected wines have regularly taken place in Denmark. Therefore, by now, a considerable amount of data exists for auction wine prices, i.e. both the assessed wine prices of the auctioneer and the eventual price at which the wines are sold. From these data the prices of the most famous French icon wines (Premier Cru Class??) are extracted and a coherent time series data set is constructed. As the auctions have taken place several times each year, the data are analysed at a quarterly frequency. Having obtained the time series data for the price development of icon wines, these are expected to be influenced by a lot of factors, of course, but the income development as reflected in the business cycle fluctuations is considered to be of utmost importance. The wine auction prices are obviously exogenous to the business cycle, and thus eventual questions of causality are easier tested than usually done with many economic variables. Hence, the empirical part of the paper analyses the co-movements in the wine prices and the business cycle, the latter represented by several indicators in order to address the question of whether the wine auctions are affected by the general economic development or not. The major conclusions seem to be that the auctioneers valuation of icon wines may follow the international prices of these goods - and the prices of substitutes as represented by the stock market index - but in contrast to this, in recent years the actual hammer prices are stagnating and deviating from the path of the wine price valuations.
在过去的几十年里，选定的葡萄酒拍卖会定期在丹麦举行。因此，到目前为止，拍卖葡萄酒的价格存在着大量的数据，既包括拍卖师评估的葡萄酒价格，也包括葡萄酒最终卖出的价格。从这些数据中提取出最著名的法国葡萄酒图标(Premier Cru ClassA?)的价格，并构建一个连贯的时间序列数据集。由于拍卖每年都会进行几次，所以每季度都会对数据进行分析。我们已经获得了icon wines的价格发展的时间序列数据，这些数据预计会受到很多因素的影响，当然，但反映在商业周期波动中的收入发展被认为是最重要的。葡萄酒拍卖价格显然不受商业周期的影响，因此最终的因果关系问题比通常用许多经济变量更容易检验。因此，本文的实证部分分析了葡萄酒价格和商业周期的共同运动，后者由几个指标来表示，以解决葡萄酒拍卖是否受到总体经济发展的影响的问题。主要的结论似乎是,图标葡萄酒的拍卖估价可能遵循这些商品的国际价格和替代品的价格所代表的股票市场指数,但相比之下,近年来实际锤价格停滞不前和偏离路径的葡萄酒价格估值。
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