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英文文献：What Determines the Future Value of an Icon Wine? Evidence from Australia-什么决定了图标酒的未来价值?来自澳大利亚的证据
英文文献作者：Danielle Wood,Kym Anderson
英文文献摘要：
The Australian wine auction market is characterised by large variations in price between different vintages of the same wine. Yet the release prices of those wines exhibit considerably less volatility. This paper addresses the question: to what extent can we anticipate the future price of such icon wines from information available at the time of release? Specifically, it looks at the importance of the weather conditions during the grape-growing season. A hedonic model is estimated to explain the variation in price between different vintages using several weather variables plus dummy variables for capturing changes in winemaking and grape growing techniques. The model is estimated using auction price data for four South Australian icon red wines: three by Penfolds (Grange, St Henri and Bin 707), and one by Henschke?’s (Hill of Grace). We show that weather variables and changes in production techniques, along with the age of the wine, have significant power in explaining the secondary market price variation across different vintages of each wine. The results have implications for winemakers in determining the prices they pay for grapes and charge for their wines, and for consumers/wine investors as a guide to the quality of immature icon wines.
澳大利亚葡萄酒拍卖市场的特点是，同一种葡萄酒不同年份之间的价格差异很大。然而，这些葡萄酒发布价格的波动性要小得多。本文提出了这样一个问题:根据发布时的信息，我们能在多大程度上预测这类标志性葡萄酒的未来价格?具体来说，它着眼于葡萄生长季节天气条件的重要性。利用几个天气变量和虚拟变量来捕捉酿酒和葡萄种植技术的变化，估计了一个享乐模型来解释不同年份之间的价格变化。该模型是根据四款南澳大利亚标志性红酒的拍卖价格数据估算的:三款是Penfolds(格兰其、圣亨利和宾707)，另一款是HenschkeA 's(格瑞斯山)。我们表明，天气变量和生产技术的变化，以及葡萄酒的年代，有重要的力量解释二级市场价格的变化，不同年份的葡萄酒。研究结果对酿酒师决定葡萄和葡萄酒的价格有一定的启示，对消费者和葡萄酒投资者也有一定的指导作用，可以帮助他们了解图标葡萄酒的质量。
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