老外的技术分析理念(附译文）

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一、Technical and Fundamental Stock Analysis

There are two types of analysis that can be applied to the markets:

A. Fundamental and
B. Technical

Fundamental analysis is when you look at the fundamentals of each company, that is such things like price to earnings (P/E Ratio), future earnings potential, dividends, income, debt and a whole host of other aspects as well. This is used for investing, and technical analysis is used for trading. It's just that simple!

Technical analysis requires the knowledge of many technical indicators in order to increase your odds on each trade. These indicators provide clues to broad and narrow-based trend patterns. There are many indicators that are used, some simple & some really complex.

Technical analysts use these indicators to generate the buy & sell points.

In the past, the buy and hold strategy worked very well. But, right now the buy and hold days may be over for the next few years.

Volatile markets are here to stay providing double & even triple digit gains or losses (!) each year.

二、Stock Markets,Trading Systems and Technical Analysis Indicators

One of the lessons that I learned about the market is that most of the times the simplest strategies are often the most profitable!

Although many investors use several technical indicators and charts, there is no guarantee they will ever be successful in the markets.

If all it took to succeed in the markets were the most sophisticated equipment and software, then those with that equipment would make the most money.

But in reality, it takes more than fancy equipment to be successful in the market. Many people believe that if it isn't complicated, then it's not going to work. I have learned from experience that the opposite is often true.

Keep your investing techniques so simple that even a young boy could understand them. This will give you the opportunity to focus on what the market is telling you. All it takes is a simple but successful strategy to turn you into a winning investor.

All Forecasts are Wrong!

They differ in the extend of their wrongness, and it is usually possible to improve any forecast by gathering further relevant information or by processing in a more elaborate way, what is already known.

This costs money and time, the expenditure of which can only be justified if greater benefits can be obtained.

Technical analysis looks at the relationships that exist between a stock's price, its volume (the number of shares that trade hands during a single day), and other factors.

By using plotting and various mathematical models and analysis, technical analysts hope to be able to predict future changes in the price of a particular stock.

By looking for particular patterns on a price chart of a stock, for instance, technical analysts try to figure out the direction that the stock's price is likely to move in the future.

Many new traders have a tendency to confuse trading systems and technical analysis indicators. The majority of the confusion comes in the form of confusing the use of technical analysis indicators with systems.

三、Technical Analysis Indicators

A technical analysis indicator is used to determine the trend of a market, the strength of the market and the direction of the market.

A technical analysis indicator may be specific or non-specific. Some technical analysis indicators can be quantified in the form of an equation or algorithm. Others show up as patterns (e.g. head and shoulders, trendlines, support and resistance).

At some point, the technical analyst will receive a signal. This signal is the result of one technical analysis indicator or more than one technical analysis indicators in combination. The signal indicates to the technical analyst a course of action (e.g. buy, sell, hold).

The technical analyst will determine the method to use. However, it must be specific, objective, and reliable. The method is a subjective and not mechanical. This is a significant difference between a trading system and a technical analysis indicator.

Anyone with an imagination can create a technical analysis indicator. Everyday at least one new technical analysis indicator is created.

Over the years thousands have come and gone. Most of them don't tell us anything about the market. They're useless. Many others are of no use whatsoever.

Timing indicators tend to work in some types of markets (e.g. trending or sideways) and not others. They may also work with some securities and not others.

Therefore, they tend to be unreliable!

Timing indicators are also subjective and require interpretation. Based on my experience, most amateur traders tend to use timing indicators and base their decisions to buy, sell, or hold on them.

Many traders, after using an indicator or indicators with success turn them into a trading system. This does not mean that the trader has found the holy grail of trading systems.

Instead, what many traders find is that when the indicators are combined into a trading system, they lose their effectiveness.

四、Technical Analysis Trading Systems

A trading system is created by generating signals, setting up a decision making procedure, and incorporating risk management into the system.

A trading system is supposed to be objective and mechanical. The analyst combines a set of objective trading rules (usually in a formula or algorithm).

As a general rule, good technical analysis indicators are the building blocks of good trading systems.

However, as previously mentioned, even good technical analysis indicators can lose their validity when combined in a trading system.

Therefore, it is important to not only back-test your system but to also forward-test your system in real time.

Pitfalls of Trading Systems and Technical Analysis Indicators!

Trading systems are supposed to be objective and mechanical. They take the intuition out of trading. Buy when the system tells you to and sell when the system tells you to.

The problem is that there are not a lot of good trading systems out there.

However, some are created for certain institutions to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities, or tricky derivative strategies. They are not at all suitable for the average trader.

Traders tend to lose objectivity when using technical analysis indicators. The trader is not able to remain objective and the subjectivity of using the indicator overwhelms him.

I think it has to do with a compulsion many traders feel to have to trade. They then tend to subvert their indicators by trading when the signal is not entirely clear.

Traders have a tendency to test their trading systems and technical analysis indicators on an insufficient amount of data. Analysts need to test trading systems and technical analysis indicators on a wide array of data in different types of trading markets.

Additionally, many traders and analysts don't forward test their trading systems and technical analysis indicators in real time.

They rush to trade based on insufficient back-testing and forward-testing. Thus, they are trading on not a sound, valid basis.

Many traders fail to incorporate sound risk management techniques in their trading systems. Additionally, many traders fail to incorporate stop loss orders with their initial orders when using technical analysis indicators only.

Traders also tend to over-optimize their trading systems. They start asking the what-if question and back-test the trading system with different parameters.

They are always trying to trade with the parameters which generate the highest amount of wins. However, in real time these over-optimized systems rarely perform well.

Another trap traders fall into is to use too many technical analysis indicators. Find the few that work consistently well for you and go with them. I find the time tested technical analysis indicators to be the best.

五、Conclusions:

I have always considered speculative trading more of an art than a science.

The best traders I've ever seen use technical analysis indicators and intuition.

However, despite their intuition, one thing common to all of them is that whether they can articulate them or not, they all have a set of well defined rules they trade by.

If you are considering buying technical analysis software be very skeptical of systems that advertise tremendous results. They have probably been over-optimized to show excellent back-tested results and won't work when you try to use them.

Of course the company will have a whole list of reasons why it isn't working well at that particular point in time!

However, excuses don't do you any good when you're losing your hard earned money!

Last, what works for one trader may not work for another trader ...

If it works for you -- that's all that counts

六、Understanding Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a very reliable tool for forecasting market trends and timing market changes. Technical analysis can be very accurate. It is also very ... unemotional. It has been proven time and again that stocks move in trends. Technical analysis is used to spot those trends.

Technical analysis is best defined as ... the study of individual securities and the overall market based on supply and demand. Technicians use charts and graphs to study past and future probability of stock prices. Historical stock price and volume activity is used to program their charts.

Technicians believe that price movements are simply a reflection of thechanges in supply and demand. A technician does not care what theunderlying forces are that cause a shift in supply and demand. All that atechnical analyst cares about is ... what is actually occurring.

Technicians believe that stock price movements are nothing more than the reflection of changes in supply and demand. A major principle of all technical analysis is that prices move in identifiable trends and trends persist. Again, there's no emotion. There's only the event occurring.

If a stock is set in motion, the trend will remain intact until it ends. Once a stocks price starts moving up, the trend will continue until there is a clear reversal. And yes, once a stock price starts to move down, it will decline until there's a clear reversal.

一, 技术上的和基本的存货分析

有可能被适用于市场的分析二类型:

A. 基本原理和
技术上的 B.

基本原理分析是你看着每家公司的原则时候, 那是对所得 (P/E 比) 的如此事物相似的价格,也的未来所得潜在性，被除数，收入，债务和其他的方面一个整个的主人。 这作为投资，而且技术上的分析作为贸易。 它是正直的简单!

技术上的分析需要许多技术上的指示器的知识为了要增加在每个贸易上的你不平等。 这些指示器提供线索给宽广的和狭窄部份-立基于趋势式样。 有被用的许多指示器, 一些简单的& 一些真的合成物。

技术上的分析家使用这些指示器产生那买& 卖点。

过去, 那买并且举行被工作得很好的策略。 但是, 立刻那每天买而且支撑可能是在有往后的几数年之久之上。

市场在这里停留提供加倍的挥发性& 平坦的三倍数字增益或损失 (!) 每年。

二,进货市场, 贸易系统和技术上的分析指示器

One of the lessons that I learned about the market is that most of the times the simplest strategies are often the most profitable!

虽然许多投资者使用一些技术上的指示器和图解, 没有他们曾经决意的保证是成功的在市场中。

如果全部它拿在市场中成功是最复杂的仪器和软件,那么有那一个仪器的那些会赚最大多数的钱。

但是事实上，它带超过想像力仪器是成功的在市场中。 许多人相信如果它不被复杂的,那么它不在去上班。 我已经从经验得知相对事物是时常真实。

保存你的投资技术如此的简单以致于更甚至一个年轻的男孩可以他们。 这将会给你机会把重心集中在市场正在告诉你的。 全部它拿是一个简单的但是成功的策略将你变成一个胜利投资者。

所有的预测是错误的!

他们不一致在那他们的错误扩充, 和改良聚集比较远的有关数据的任何预测是通常可能的或藉由在一个较精细的方法中处理, 什么已经被知道。

这花费钱和时间, 开支只可能被证明如果较棒的利益可能被获得。

技术上的分析看着在一个股价，它的体积 ( 部份的数字贸易在天期间传递) 和其他的因素之间存在的关系。

藉由使用计画翻译和各种不同的数学模型和分析, 技术上的分析家希望能够预知在特别的存货价格方面的将来改变。

藉由找寻在价格图解的存货上的特别式样，举例来说技术上的分析家试着理解方向股价可能未来移动

许多新的商人让使困惑的趋向进行贸易系统和技术上的分析指示器。 混乱的多数把技术上的分析指示器的使用和系统弄混以那形式被提出。

三,技术上的分析指示器

一个技术上的分析指示器用来决定市场的趋势，市场的力量和市场的方向。

一个技术上的分析指示器可能是特定的或非特性。 一些技术上的分析指示器以一个相等或运算法则的形式可能被定量。 其它出现如式样 (举例来说 头和肩， trendlines ，支持和抵抗).

在一些点，技术上的分析家将会接受信号。 这信号是一的结果技术上的分析指示器或超过组合的一个技术上的分析指示器。 信号对技术上的分析家行动的课程指出 (举例来说 买,卖,把握).

技术上的分析家将会决定方法使用。然而,它一定是特定的，客观的，和可靠的。 方法是一主观的和不机械的。 这是在一个贸易系统和一个技术上的分析指示器之间的一种重要的不同。

任何人由于想像能产生一个技术上的分析指示器。每天至少一个新的技术上的分析指示器被产生。

在数年以来，数千已经来而且离去。 他们大部份不告诉我们关于市场的任何事。 他们是无用的。许多其它没有用无论什么。

时间安排指示器容易在一些类型的市场中工作 (举例来说 倾向或向傍边) 和不其它。 他们也可能与一些安全合作和不其它。

因此,他们容易不可靠

时间安排指示器也是主观的而且需要解释。 基于我的经验, 最大多数的业余者商人容易使用时间安排指示器和基础他们的决定买，卖，或继续他们。

许多商人,在用成功使用一个指示器或指示器之后将他们变成一个贸易系统。 这不意谓商人已经发现进行贸易系统的圣杯。

改为, 什么许多商人发现是当指示器被结合成一个贸易系统的时候,他们失去他们的效力。

四,技术上的分析贸易系统

一个贸易系统被藉由产生信号,建立一个下决策程序, 而且将危险管理纳入系统产生。

一个贸易系统应该是目的和机械的。 分析家联合一组客观的贸易规则。 ( 通常在一个公式或运算法则中)

如一条一般的规则，好技术上的分析指示器是好贸易系统的砌块。

然而, 当做先前提到,当在一个贸易系统中联合的时候 , 平坦的善行技术上的分析指示器能失去他们的有效性。

因此, 它很重要不只有背面- 测试你的系统但是到在真正的时间中的也向前的- 测试你的系统。

进行贸易系统和技术上的分析指示器的陷阱!

贸易系统应该是目的和机械的。 他们从贸易取出直觉。当系统告诉你的时候 , 买到而且卖系统何时告诉你到。

问题是没有许多好贸易系统出自在那里。

然而，一些为某机构被产生利用仲裁机会 , 或狡猾的引出策略。 他们一点也不对平均商人是适当的。

当使用技术上的分析指示器的时候商人容易失去客观性。 商人不能够保持目的和使用指示器的主观淹没他。

我认为它必须由于一个许多商人的强迫做必须交易。 当信号不完全清楚的时候他们然后容易藉由进行贸易推翻他们的指示器。

商人让测试的趋向在一笔不够量的数据上的他们贸易系统和技术上的分析指示器。 分析家测试进行贸易不同的类型进行贸易市场的在数据的广泛排列上的系统和技术上的分析指示器。

附加地，许多商人和分析家在真正的时间中不转寄测试他们的贸易系统和技术上的分析指示器。

他们冲闯交易基于不够的背面- 测试和向前的-测试。 因此，他们正在不一种健全的, 有效的基础上进行贸易。

许多商人没有合并声音危险他们的贸易系统的管理技术。 当只有使用技术上的分析指示器的时候 , 附加地，许多商人没有用他们的开始命令合并停止损失命令。

商人也容易在-之上将他们的贸易系统最佳化。 他们开始问那什么- 如果问题和背面-用不同的叁数测试贸易系统。

他们总是试着以产生最高的数量赢得的叁数交易。 然而, 在真正的时间中这些在-之上很少地将系统最佳化了运行得很好。

另外的圈套商人掉入要使用太多技术上的分析指示器。为你一致地找很少的那一个工作起来好的而且和他们进行。我找被测试技术上的分析指示器当最好者的时间。

五,结论:

我已经总是考虑一种艺术的思索性的贸易更多比较一个科学。

我曾经已经看到的最好商人使用技术上的分析指示器和直觉。

然而，不管他们的直觉，对他们全部都是通常的一件事物是否他们能以关节连接他们,他们全部有他们交易被一组定义良好的规则。

如果你是就买技术上的分析软件而论广告巨大的结果系统非常怀疑。他们已经或许结束- 将最佳化优良的背面测试的结果而且将不工作当你试着使用他们的时候。

当然公司将会有理由的一本整个的目录它为什么不在及时在特别的点工作得很好!

然而，当你正在损失你的难挣得的钱时候 , 藉口不做你任何善行!

持续, 什么工作因为一个商人为另外的一个商人不可能工作如果它为你工作 -- 那是所有的计数

六,了解技术上的分析

技术上的分析是预测市场趋势的一个非常可靠的工具而且时间安排市场变化。 技术上的分析可能是非常正确的。 它是也非常搬进趋势。 技术上的分析用来弄脏那些趋势。

技术上的分析很最好定义当做而且全部的市场基于补给和要求。 技术人员使用图解和曲线图学习越过和未来股价的可能性。活动用来规划他们的图解历史的股价和体积。

技术人员相信价格运动只是反映那在补给和要求方面的改变。 一个技术人员不关心什么那在下面的力量是那引起补给和要求的变化。 所有的一技术上的分析家关心是...

技术人员相信股价运动什么也不是超过在补给和要求方面的改变反映。 一项全部的主要原则技术上的分析是价格搬进可以确认的趋势和趋势坚持。 再一次,没有情绪。 只有有事件发生。

如果存货是开始运动, 趋势将会保持尚未被人碰过的直到它结束。 一次一存货价格向上开始移动, 趋势将会直到有一清楚的翻转。 而且是的，一次一个股价开始移动下,它将会衰退直到有一个清楚的翻转。

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-8-4 8:21:23编辑过]

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