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This is especially true for SUV and luxury segments–two areas we are most
bullish on and expect further share price rally. This, however, may not apply
to the truck sector where we expect valuations running ahead of fundamentals
and recommend investors take profit, if not short.
Strong tailwind to boost 1Q13 auto sector’s performance: PV (passenger
vehicle) sales have stood above seasonality since 4Q12. Our analysis
suggests that Dec-12 sales (to be released on Jan 10-11) will likely beat
expectation again, or ~15% YoY and 10-15% MoM (vs. seasonality of 8%
MoM). This will be a strong tailwind boosting 1Q or 1H13 auto sales. SUV
and luxury segments should see superior sales performance as they did last
year.
Recap of our positive view on SUV and luxury cars in 2013:
1. We expect SUV to grow 20% this year after 24% in 2012. By segment,
local brands/lower-end should see strongest growth. In 2012, growth of
local brand SUV was ~40% or nearly twice as fast as broader SUV.
Despite numerous new SUV models to be launched this year, we believe
only 3-5 models will be successful with meaningful shipment (i.e. over
5,000/month) in every segment. Our top picks are Geely Auto and
Great Wall Motor. We raise GWM’s 2012/13 estimates and PT to
HK$32 from HK$24. On Geely, we maintain our street-highest earnings
forecast and PT (HK$6).
2. Luxury car growth will remain 2-3x higher than broader PV market. The
growth may vary depending on brands; we believe another 10-20%
growth is achievable if not exceeding for major players such as BMW
and Audi after over 30% growth in 2012.
Truck stocks’ prices running ahead of fundamentals: Contrary to PV, we
believe the rally in truck stocks (Weichai 78% and Sinotruk 63% from the
trough in 2H12) on accelerated FAI approvals by NDRC in 4Q12 and
expectation on improving demand has overly priced the upside, leaving risk
from here on the downside including potential disappointment in 2012
results in March. Fundamentally, after 8% sales decline in 2012, we forecast
CV (commercial vehicle) will only see moderate low single digits recovery
in 2013. This does not support the 60-80% rally in the last few months.
Buy low, sell high or hold through the upcycle?: 1) Our view on SUV is
simple–investors would be better off holding through the cycle than trying to
identify entry and exit points during the cycle. On penetration, product
pipeline and earnings, we believe there is more upside for Geely and Great
Wall. 2) On luxury cars, LT top down theme is intact but near term we
would caution on the potential downside risk to consensus earnings during
result season in March especially in light of the recent rally. 3) On trucks,
we would take profit or avoid Weichai Power and Sinotruk.
j 中国汽车 2013.pdf
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