发帖
雷达卡
Pipeline NPV Analysis
Uncovers Hidden Value
Following up on our “China Has R&D” report, we
have built a net present value (NPV) model to
assess the pipeline of the companies we cover. We
have also identified ‘first-in-class’ and ‘me-too’
drugs to differentiate the quality of the pipeline. Our
updated database includes filings as of Dec ’12.
Pipeline NPV reveals new insights on investment by
drug companies: We believe that these NPV estimates
not only highlight the importance of pipelines but also
help investors assess the companies’ long-term
potential. Not surprisingly, our proprietary analysis
reveals that pipeline NPV represents an incremental
36%, 35%, 40%, and 17% to the current market value of
Hengrui, Sinobiopharm, China Pharm, and Sihuan,
respectively, supporting our Overweight ratings on these
stocks. But we found the biggest incremental pipeline
value for Lee’s Pharma and Simcere (86% and 85%),
suggesting that these two companies have the most
upside potential from their pipeline products.
Improving R&D quality – 40 of 329 pipeline drugs
are first-in-class: We examined the mechanism of
action for over 260 innovative drugs under clinical
development. Among 40 IND applications for firstin-
class drugs, 10 (25%) are oncology drugs, eight are
for the central nervous system (CNS), and eight are for
the circulatory system. Academic institutions submitted
16 (40%) of the first-in-class drugs, the majority of which
are derived from herbal, animal and marine organisms.
Pipeline filing has reached highest level since 2006:
Our in-depth analysis of Morgan Stanley’s proprietary
new drug database indicates that domestic R&D is
showing a clear upward trend, i.e., submissions for
clinical trials for new drugs (IND) rose for the third year in
a row, reaching 36 in 2012. However, the number of new
drugs approved (NDA) by China’s SFDA was only two in
2012, reflecting the relatively small number of NDA
submissions in 2009 and 2010. We expect a rebound in
NDA approvals in 2013.)
ms 中国医药 1301.pdf
(641.32 KB)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
