Our expectations for rising interest rates, driven in part by a positive view of the US economy with an associated improvement in the dollar, could be the perfect storm to start a longer-term bear market. Professional sentiment, as evidenced by heavy redemptions in ETFs and the increasing willingness of managed money investors to trade from the short side, confirms our view that gold may have had its “last hurrah”.
Our base case 2013 forecast for gold is for $1500/oz on average, and $1375/oz by year’s end. This report outlines the bear case for gold and explores what it would take for a dramatic decline in gold prices beyond our forecast.
ScoGen The end of gold era.pdf
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