第二种可能比较合理,业绩差的公司更容易发生经理人变更。这实质上一种自我选择行为。因此,文献中通常采用 PSM,treatment effect model 等方法进行处理。
第一种可能值得推敲,只能说各个年度上的业绩受宏观经济状况和行业生命周期的影响,但不能推断公司的业绩随着时间的推移一定变好。
推荐几篇文章供参考:
Cooper et al. (2005) |JF|,基金更名行为的影响,DID stata command: diff
Cooper, M, Gulen H, Rau P (2005). Changing Names with Style: Mutual Fund Name Changes and Their Effects on Fund Flows. Journal of Finance, 60 (6): 2825-2858.
采用配对的方法解决内生性问题 Stata学术论文视频教程 Chang_2009_JCF 一节有详细讲解
http://peixun.pinggu.org/2012_01_stata.pdf
Chang, E C, Wong S M L (2009). Governance with multiple objectives: Evidence from top executive turnover in China. Journal of Corporate Finance, 15 (2): 230-244.
Lee and Masulis (2009) |JFE|,二次发行,treatment effect model,Stata command: treatreg
Lee, G, Masulis R W (2009). Seasoned equity offerings: Quality of accounting information and expected flotation costs. Journal of Financial Economics, 92 (3): 443-469.