英文文献:Price Distortions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa-撒哈拉以南非洲的价格扭曲和经济增长
英文文献作者:Kym Anderson,Markus Bruckner
英文文献摘要:
To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that have discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy distortions to relative prices to address this question econometrically. We first test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. We find that on impact there is no significant response of relative price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita. We then test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. Our fixed effects estimates suggest that, during 1960-2005, a one standard deviation increase in distortions to relative prices reduced the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum.
撒哈拉以南非洲地区过去50年经济增长缓慢,在多大程度上是由于价格和贸易政策阻碍了农业生产相对于非农业贸易产品的增长?本文使用一套新的估计政策扭曲相对价格,以解决这个问题的计量经济学。我们首先用降雨和国际大宗商品价格冲击作为工具变量,检验这些政策扭曲是否会对经济增长做出反应。我们发现,在影响方面,相对价格扭曲对实际人均GDP的变化没有显著的反应。然后,我们检验了反向命题,并发现相对价格扭曲对撒哈拉以南非洲国家的增长率产生了统计上显著且相当大的负面影响。我们的固定效应估计显示,在1960年至2005年期间,相对价格扭曲程度每增加一个标准差,该地区实际人均GDP增长率每年就会下降约0.5个百分点。