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中金研报（英文）—宏利金融：好的开始.pdf
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Investment summary – Focus on execution ............................................................................................... 5
New financial targets – C$4bn in core earnings to be achieved by 2016 ................................................. 7
1Q13: Strong core earnings, particularly in US division ........................................................................... 9
Earnings forecast ................................................................................................................................... 12
Changes in accounting standards .......................................................................................................... 12
Issues with hedging – Significant impact on P&L .................................................................................... 13
Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 13
Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 13
Issue 1: Interest rate and credit/swap spread ........................................................................................ 18
Issue 2: Equity market – Japan book could not be fully hedged before the recent TOPIX rally ............. 20
Issue 3: Volatility .................................................................................................................................... 20
Asia division – Expected to be the key core earnings contributor by 2016 ........................................... 22
Background ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Recent performance ............................................................................................................................... 23
Going forward – Developing opportunities to the fullest ......................................................................... 26
Comparison of major competitors: AIA and Prudential (Asia) ................................................................. 27
Hong Kong – A profitable and significant operation in the Asia division ................................................. 30
Japan – Small player in a huge market .................................................................................................. 32
Indonesia – Successful partnership with Bank Danamon ...................................................................... 36
Other Asia Territories – Major contributor of wealth sales in Asia division .............................................. 38
US division: Significant repositioning in the past 4 years; ahead of competitors ................................ 42
Background: Merger of Manulife and John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in April 2004 .................... 42
John Hancock’s business operations ..................................................................................................... 43
What was going wrong? ......................................................................................................................... 43
Recent performance – Profit turnaround with increasing fee income and decreasing new business strains
............................................................................................................................................................... 45
Going forward – Focus on fee-based business and de-risked life insurance/LTC business ................... 48
Canadian division: Stable earnings contribution ..................................................................................... 50
Background ............................................................................................................................................ 50
Recent performance – 1Q13 core earnings increased 4% YoY ............................................................. 51
Going forward – Increased diversification and focus on higher returns, lower risk and less capital
intensive business .................................................................................................................................. 53
Valuation ...................................................................................................................................................... 55
Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) by region: Target price of HK$143.80 represents 19.9% upside .................... 55
Alternative valuation ............................................................................................................................... 56
Risks............................................................................................................................................................. 59
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