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英文文献：Uncertainty and Hyperbolic Discounting-不确定性和双曲贴现
英文文献作者：Partha Dasgupta,Eric Maskin
英文文献摘要：
We propose an evolutionary explanation for the pattern of intertemporal preference reversals often ascribed to "hyperbolic discounting." We take the view that preferences—manifested, for example, in urges, cravings, and inclinations— are the outcome of evolutionary forces, and so will induce animals or humans to make survival-maximizing choices in "typical" decision problems. We show that if the typical problem involves payoffs whose realization times are uncertain, then optimal preferences give rise to relatively patient behavior when the time horizon is long but induce a switch to impatience when the horizon grows short. Such reversals do not entail dynamic inconsistency in typical decision problems; behavior there is optimal. However, if a decision-maker is confronted with a choice for which the realization-time uncertainty falls outside the evolutionary norm, her preferences may well prompt her to behave inconsistently. We argue that, if such a choice problem recurs, her evolutionarily endowed aability to learn will lead her to make self-commitments against these urges.
我们提出了跨期偏好逆转的模式的进化论解释，通常归因于“双曲贴现”。我们认为，偏好——例如，在欲望、渴望和倾向中表现出来的——是进化力量的结果，因此会诱导动物或人类在“典型的”决策问题中做出生存最大化的选择。我们表明，如果典型的问题涉及到实现时间不确定的偿付，那么当时间期限较长时，最优偏好会导致相对耐心的行为，而当时间期限较短时，则会导致不耐行为。在典型的决策问题中，这种逆转并不会导致动态不一致;那里的行为是最佳的。然而，如果一个决策者面临一个选择，而这个选择的实现时间的不确定性不在进化规范之内，她的偏好很可能促使她的行为不一致。我们认为，如果这样的选择问题再次出现，她进化赋予的学习能力将导致她做出自我承诺来对抗这些冲动。
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