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雷达卡
A Renewed Lease of Life
Aircraft manufacturers can expect to enjoy several years of strong demand, as
order flows remain healthy, financing is getting easier and growth in aircraft lessors
smooths the cycle. Three factors give us confidence this cycle will be stronger for longer:
Backlog confidence is rising. Backlogs for aircraft OEMS (original equipment
manufacturers) are at all-time highs and now come from a more diversified customer base.
High oil prices are driving demand for fuel-efficient aircraft, airlines in developed markets
need to replace older fleets, and growth is still robust in emerging markets. Our bottom-up
analysis of Boeing and Airbus backlogs suggest a low risk of cancellations.
Financing hurdles are easing. EM banks and export credit agencies have allowed DM
airlines to focus on return-enhancing replacements and EM airlines on expansion. We
look at new financing opportunities available as the EETC market opens beyond the US,
which should help airlines with attractive fleet orders to finance in the high-yield market.
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y B L U E P A P E R-Commercial-Aviation.pdf
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