38P 大摩- China Construction Machinery-上半年回顾

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FAI grew 20.1% YoY in 1H13, slower than 20.7% in 2012. Coal mining investment declined 2% YoY. Property investment rose 23% YoY, and although better than 16% in 2012, the growth rate slowed in 2Q13. Floor space starts were up 4%, and property prices rose 11%. Transportation infrastructure investment was up 22% YoY, according to NBS. Based on MoT data, railway investment rose 26% YoY in 1H13, and highway was up 12% YoY, thanks to better 2Q13.

Machinery sales improved on a lower comparison base: loaders down 4% YoY; excavator shipments down 12% YoY, especially in 2Q13, when base was much lower; loader volume was up 9% YoY and excavator up 4% YoY. In 1Q13, mobile cranes sales were still down by 28% YoY.

Loaders: The top four are still dominating with 65% of the market. Lonking’s sales fell 12% while Liugong’s were down 11% YoY. Lonking’s market share contracted 0.7ppt to 14.2%, and Liugong’s share shrank 1.2ppts, to 17.6%.

Excavators: Local brands’ market share fell to 41.5%, with Liugong and Lonking posting the main losses. Among foreign OEMs, Caterpillar’s share shrank by 0.3ppt, to 8.6%, Komatsu’s share stabilized at 8.1%, and Hyundai gained back 0.2ppt to 7.5%.

Mobile Cranes: In 1Q13, Zoomlion continued to lead the market with 18.8% share, while Liugong gained from a low base.

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