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157568912-2013-08-01-Goldman-Sachs-Rate-Fears-Are-Overdone-Back-to-the-Grind-Pre.pdf
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Our core views
Search-for-yield is (still) the dominant theme
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Credit fundamentals are basically sound (especially for Bs and above)
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Valuations are fair (in contrast to our rates view)
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ECB has authentically staunched systemic risk (though not growth risk)
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Fed exit will be more accommodative than the market currently thinks
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Low growth, low inflation, low yields, low tail risks => the yield search is not over Relative value: Search for yield with some growth optionality
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Broad themes: Spread, complexity and illiquidity
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HY: High-quality offers best risk-reward (CCCs are overbought)
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IG: Overweight US financials vs. nonfinancials Risks
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Corporate re-leveraging (LBO risk is low, but existing management is a risk)
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The great rotation and/or mutual fund outflows (some volatility, but a slow trend, if any)
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China/EM growth (we are still constructive, but risks have grown)
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Stalling of Euro area reform (a serious growth risk, but LTRO/OMT dominate short run)
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Broader DM policy error (arguably as important a risk in recovery as in recession)
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Recent selloff validates our view that risk from rates is benign
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