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【日期】20131003
【篇幅】22
【摘要】There are two competing models for trade liberalization in Asia. The first,
an extension of the ASEAN Free Trade Area to include China, Japan, South
Korea and perhaps also Australia, New Zealand and India seems to be
preferred by some ASEAN members. The alternative, which has its roots
in APEC, has evolved into the Trans Pacific Partnership. While the ultimate
goal of both paths is, we think, a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, these
two paths offer very different models.
􀂄 Of essential importance, the TPP offers the potential for much more
significant liberalization of services activities, not just across borders but
domestically as well.
􀂄 The estimated welfare gains from either path to FTAAP are significant, but
the TPP clearly dominates. Interestingly, the TPP path dominates the
ASEAN-based path even for the ASEAN countries.
􀂄 The emphasis on services trade in TPP is particularly important as services
sectors in emerging markets are significantly less productive relative to the
OECD average than their industrial sectors. Trade liberalization could,
therefore be an important catalyst to broader economic revival in
participating countries.
􀂄 The Shanghai Free Trade Zone is, we think, a means by which the Chinese
government hopes to create a domestic consensus in favour of joining the
TPP.
20131004-Deutsche Bank-Global Economic Perspectives Toward free trade across the.pdf
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