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20131021-Credit Suisse-Analysing Chinese Grey Income.pdf
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Analysing Chinese Grey Income
Credit Suisse, along with China Society of Economic Reform, has sponsored
Prof Wang Xiaolu of China Reform Foundation in his third study on China’s grey
income and income distribution:
■ Large income gap, but declining. Similar to the last two surveys, this
survey shows the estimated personal income is significantly higher than the
NBS reported numbers and the underestimation is much more serious for
the high-income group. What has changed in the past two surveys is that the
income growth of the low-income group had been much faster than that of
the high-income group during 2008-11, while the trend was exactly the
opposite between 2005 and 2008.
■ Declining consumption ratio for almost every income group. This is
particularly evident among the low-income group. Having said that, given
China's strong income growth, absolute consumption growth is still strong.
■ High property ownership. Most Chinese households owned at least one
piece of residential property, and over 20% of households with per-capita
income over Rmb50,000 p.a. owned two or more units of properties. This
poses a long-term concern to the health of China's property sector.
■ Stock beneficiaries. Chinese consumption is still rising at a healthy pace, and
after correcting on the back of underestimation of income, the penetration of
luxury consumer goods in China is still not very high. We believe the
beneficiaries of China's rising income are: Belle, Burberry, CR Land, Chow Tai
Fook, Franshion, Intime, Mengniu, Prada, Swatch and Tiffany.
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