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20131028-UBS-Global Economic Outlook 2014 - 2015.pdf
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Global Economic Perspectives
Global Economic Outlook 2014 - 2015
The slow return to normal
As is our autumn custom we launch our Global Economic Outlook, including an
initiation of 2015 forecasts. We expect global growth to accelerate modestly over the
next two years as activity in the US picks up and as a gradual recovery in the Eurozone
continues. Economic activity in China is forecasted to pick up next year owing to better
growth in the advanced economies and a corresponding lift to exports. Overall, we
expect global growth to accelerate from 2.5% this year to 3.4% in 2014 and 2015.
The familiar
Developments in the world economy will both resemble and differ from the familiar
patterns of the ‘new normal.’ The main similarity is the continuation of a gradual and
therefore less-than-satisfactory global economic recovery, with the key implication that
global growth will not reach—much less exceed—its long-term average over the next
two years. Barring commodity supply shocks, therefore, inflation will remain subdued,
excepting those instances where small open economies experience rapid exchange rate
depreciation.
The new
The main differences include recovery in Europe, which we expect will provide a lift to
global growth and trade, but also fading momentum in emerging economies as
domestic credit-fuelled growth there ebbs. We are also encouraged by the support the
world economy will receive in the coming years from supply-side innovations in energy
production, new manufacturing techniques, and the increasingly broad reach of
information and communications technology.
Policy and currency forecasts
A backdrop of moderate global growth and benign inflation suggests that
accommodative monetary policies will only be gradually withdrawn over the next two
years. We expect the Fed to slowly scale back its asset purchases and keep the Fed
Funds rate unchanged until the latter half of 2015. Every other major central bank is
likely to continue to keep policy rates near zero. As a result of divergent monetary
policy settings between the US and the rest of the developed world, we anticipate a
stronger US dollar over the forecast horizon.
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