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US Economic Outlook.pdf
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2012 GDP growth still expected to be low
The recent stream of weekly and monthly economic data has taken on a slightly more
positive tone, but in our view, not much has changed regarding the outlook for GDP
growth this year. We anticipate that GDP growth in 2012 will be about the same, on
average, as it was in 2011, roughly 1.7%. The underlying growth in final demand remains
weak, and growth in final demand appears unlikely to accelerate very much this year.
Consumer spending is still restrained by debt deleveraging and the desire to rebuild net
worth, following the huge losses in real estate wealth over the past few years. Growth in
business fixed investment is beginning to moderate after two years of healthy gains.
Government outlays are contracting as state and local governments continue to struggle
with revenue shortfalls and as the federal government embarks on its own program of
fiscal austerity. We do not expect net exports to add to the economy’s growth in the year
ahead, given the likely decline in exports to European countries resulting from the
recession unfolding in that region.
Higher oil prices hit demand
Gasoline prices have risen sharply since the start of the year and are approaching the highs
reached in the early part of 2011. The run-up in gas prices last year had a noticeable
dampening effect on consumer spending. The same is likely to occur in the months ahead, we
believe. Already, available data show that consumer spending on gasoline and other energy
goods fell 1.7% from December to January. Outlays for clothing and other non-food items
also fell in real terms. Gasoline prices may fall in coming months just as they did in 2011. If
they do, then the restraint on consumer spending will be lifted. If not, we can continue to
expect another year of sluggish growth in consumption spending and in GDP.
Fed may need new easing move after June
Our forecast of 1.7% GDP growth this year is below that expected by policymakers at the
Federal Reserve, which indicated in January that they expect about 2.5% growth. In our
view, it is likely that the policymakers will hold off any new easing moves until
“Operation Twist” is completed in June. However, if the economy’s growth is as weak as
we anticipate, then the chances should increase for a new easing move, perhaps through a
new asset purchase program later this year to expand the Fed’s balance sheet.
4 March 2012
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