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德意志银行-中国经济增长的新地区 12月3日 PDF 42页
The most important shift in China’s regional policy over the last year has
been that the central government now views Tianjin as the new growth pole
for the Bohai Rim Region, and Chengdu and Chongqing as the new growth
poles for Western China.
Based on our recent field study in Tianjin, Chengdu and Chongqing, we
believe that the recent lifting of the status of these cities to Special
Economic Zones (SEZs) will push their nominal GDP growth rates to 17-20%
per annum over the next three years vs. national average of 10-13%. These
are conservative estimates; as the GDP growth of six SEZs set up before
outperformed the national average by 12 ppts during their first 10 years of
development.
The most important special policy for these three new SEZs will be their
extremely flexible land use arrangement. While most other localities face highly
stringent land supply control by the central government, the new SEZs are allowed
to convert thousands of square kms to urban use. This will significantly increase
their local revenue for funding infrastructure projects and attract stronger capital
inflows from abroad and other provinces. In Tianjin Binhai alone, the available land
for development is four times that of Pudong and twice that of Hong Kong. The
annual number of FDI visitors has already increased five-fold over the past two
years. Other favorable policies for new SEZs include special financing
arrangements, tax incentives, and speedier project approvals.
Key beneficiaries of new SEZs are infrastructure and real estate sectors. As
regional growth poles, developing transport infrastructure is a priority for these
new SEZs. Tianjin’s role as the logistics center for Northern China and Cheng-Yu’s
mandate for faster urbanization imply massive growth of demand for ports, roads,
and utilities. Real estate demand should also grow much faster in these SEZs than
in other places due to rapid income and population growth (reflecting their highly
aggressive urbanization targets) as well as FDI inflows.
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