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雷达卡
110 analysts for 2008
12 Strategists
13 Sector teams
Table of Contents
The year ahead process.........................................................................2
Investment summary.............................................................................. 2
Macro Monitor......................................................................................... 4
Investment themes for the Year of the Rat..........................................5
Earnings growth ....................................................................................7
Valuations: Bubble monitor...................................................................8
Potential returns....................................................................................9
Market drivers....................................................................................... 11
Risks...................................................................................................... 12
Surprises for the Rat ............................................................................ 14
2008 Economic outlook ....................................................................... 15
Emerging Asia economic outlook....................................................... 17
China: High growth, higher rates & Rmb ........................................... 19
India: Investment led growth............................................................... 21
Emerging Asian currency outlook ...................................................... 22
Economics forecast ............................................................................. 25
Large cap ideas: JPMorgan large-cap top picks ...............................32
Large cap ideas: JPMorgan large-cap stocks to avoid ..................... 33
Mid-cap ideas: JPMorgan mid-cap top picks, stocks to avoid......... 34
Small-cap ideas: JPMorgan small-cap top picks, stocks to avoid... 35
Top picks by country strategists ........................................................ 36
Stocks to avoid by country strategists............................................... 37
Top picks by sector heads .................................................................. 38
Stocks to avoid by sector heads......................................................... 40
Contrarian calls .................................................................................... 41
Non-consensus top picks and stocks to avoid ................................. 44
Market Overviews................................................................................. 45
Sector Overviews ................................................................................. 71
Top Picks .............................................................................................. 97
Stocks to Avoid .................................................................................. 301
Strategy Dashboards ......................................................................... 393
JPMorgan View
Change in view
New theme:
• Triple Merit Theme—Emerging Asia in the 2000s a
stronger story than Japan in the 1980s
Asian equity markets:
• Upgrades to Overweight: Hong Kong, Malaysia and
Thailand
• Downgrades to Underweight: Australia, Taiwan and
Korea
• Upgrade to Neutral: India
No change in view
Themes:
• Synchronized global capex; buy engineering, steel,
petrochemicals
• Marathon Man; pay-up for growth
• Equity Gate Crashers theme has broadened to New Kid
on the Block
Asian equity markets:
• Overweight: China, Singapore and the Philippines
Table 1: 2008 Year End Index
Targets, sorted by return
JPM Target Est. Upside
Singapore 4800 33%
Philippines 4750 28%
China 22000 24%
Hong Kong 35000 22%
Pakistan 16000 19%
India 22500 18%
Indonesia 3185 18%
Taiwan 10500 17%
Malaysia 1600 14%
Korea 2300 16%
Thailand 970 11%
Australia 7010 7%
Source: Datastream, JPMorgan estimates.
Returns from 9 November 2007 index levels.
Still a growth market
Favor strong currencies
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