Credit Suisse - Singapore Offshore and Marine Sector 2013 Outlook -瑞银 英文27页

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瑞银 - 新加坡岸外和海事行业

英文 27页

■ Looking beyond Petrobras. Following the award of Petrobras’ deepwater
rig contracts, we believe the market will focus on: (1) the prospects for non-
Petrobras orders; (2) the level of sustainable margins for Singapore
rigbuilders; and (3) the growing competition from Chinese and Korean yards.

■ Rig orders might have peaked in the near term. While firm oil prices
should underpin the demand for offshore equipment, we expect rig orders to
remain subdued due to tight credit conditions. In particular, jackup rig orders
could be capped due to significant supply additions in 2013. However, we
expect this to be offset by a recovery in semisubmersible orders, where
Singapore yards are likely to receive a fair share of orders.

■ Chinese yards not out of the woods. We continue to take a cautious view
of Chinese yards, due to negative earnings risks from depletion of
shipbuilding orderbooks and lower margins of new contracts. While Chinese
yards have gained market share in the offshore segment through lower
pricing and attractive payment terms, we believe this near-term threat to
Singapore yards is tempered by execution challenges.

■ We maintain our MARKETWEIGHT on the Singapore O&M sector;
Keppel (OUTPERFORM, TP S$12.80) is our top pick. Given limited
positive sector drivers in 2013, our preferred pick is Keppel Corp, where we
see scope for O&M margins to surprise positively. Margin recovery is likely
to be driven by Keppel’s record 19 jackup rig deliveries, most of which are
based on established designs.

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关键词：Singapore offshore Singapor Outlook sector