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The year 2012 was another historic one for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology, which has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade and is on the way to becoming a mature and mainstream source of electricity. The world’s cumulative PV capacity surpassed the impressive 100-gigawatt (GW) installed electrical power mark, achieving just over 102 GW. This capacity is capable of producing as much annual electrical energy as 16 coal power plants or nuclear reactors of 1 GW each.
Each year these PV installations save more than 53 million tons of CO2. Remarkably, even during a time of economic crisis, an estimated 31 GW of new PV capacity was commissioned around the world in 2012 – roughly the same as in the record-setting year of 2011. But even if the headline numbers remain stable, the story behind them is changing dramatically. The results
of 2012 signal a turning point in the global PV market that will have profound implications in the coming years. For the first time in more than a decade, the European market for PV declined compared to the previous year. More vigorous growth in markets outside of Europe helped keep the global development of PV on an upward trajectory. Other factors – the approaching competitiveness of PV compared to other electricity sources, the changing nature of electricity markets, trade conflicts and the turmoil facing the PV industry due to consolidation – are also already affecting the market outlook for the near future. This report assesses the European and global markets for PV in 2012, and makes forecasts for the next five years. It is based on an internal analysis of data1 from industry members, national associations, government agencies and electric utilities. The figures presented were discussed and analysed by key players from the PV industry at our 8th EPIA Market Workshop in Brussels in March 2013.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION 4
2. METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS 8
3. MARKET EVOLUTION 12
A. Historical PV market development 13
1. World 13
2. Europe 16
B. The market in Europe in 2012 and the forecast until 2017 19
1. “Installed” vs. “commissioned capacity” figures 19
2. Relevant European markets in 2012 20
3. Segmentation 22
4. Forecasts of PV in Europe until 2017 25
5. 2020 potential and targets in the EU 26
6. Support schemes in Europe and prospects for PV 30
C. The global market in 2012 and the forecast until 2017 31
1. Forecasts until 2017 33
2. Forecasts per segment 36
3. Future prospects for market development 39
4. PHOTOVOLTAICS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 40
A. PV: the first new generation capacity in the European Union in 2012 41
B. PV contributes almost 30% of new generation in 2012 43
C. PV positioning in the electricity generation capacity over the last 12 years 46
5. INDUSTRY EVOLUTION 48
A. Production capacity vs. actual production 50
B. Global PV production capacity outlook until 2017 52
C. Technology development 54
6. CONCLUSION 56
Glossary 58
List of figures and tables 59
EPIA-Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2013-2017.pdf
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