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英文文献：Tell me what you export today and I will tell you what you will export tomorrow: The Product Space and the Evolution of Country pattern of specialization-告诉我你今天出口什么，我会告诉你明天出口什么:产品空间和国家专业化模式的演变
英文文献作者：Antonella Chiappelo,Alejandro Dano?n,Guillermina Marto,Nicola?s Pinto
英文文献摘要：
Countries pattern of specialization and its evolution has been economic area of notable interest by academy and policy makers. Moreover, many authors show that economies grow by improving the number and complexity of the products that they produce. Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann (2007) constructed the Product Space, a network that maps the connection, between every product worldwide traded, in order to explain the evolution of countries pattern of specialization. However, this matrix estimates a conditional probability of exporting products using a symmetrical approach, that tends to punish more tradable products. In order to improve the predictions of the evolution of country productive structure, we propose an asymmetrical measure, assuming that the conditional probability of exporting a product P given P ? is exported is not the same as the reverse. Consequently, this new measure predicts nearly 40% of the developed products and more than 70% of the declined products.
国家的专业化模式及其演变一直是学术界和决策者特别感兴趣的经济领域。此外，许多作者表明，经济增长是通过提高产品的数量和复杂性来实现的。Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi和Hausmann(2007)构建了产品空间，这是一个描绘全球贸易的每一种产品之间联系的网络，以解释国家专业化模式的演变。然而，这个矩阵用对称的方法估计了出口产品的条件概率，这种方法倾向于惩罚更多的可贸易产品。为了提高预测的国家生产结构的进化,我们提出一个不对称的测量,假设条件概率的出口产品P P?出口不是一样的逆转。因此，这一新措施预测了近40%的已开发产品和超过70%的已淘汰产品。
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