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Alan Greenspan, "The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting"
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?
To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.
The Map and the Territory smartly updates our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioural economists and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.
Alan Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigour, wisdom and unprecedented experience, offers a master class in economic decision making.
Introduction
ONE. ANIMAL SPIRITS
TWO. THE CRISIS BEGINS, INTENSIFIES, AND ABATES
THREE. THE ROOTS OF CRISIS
FOUR. STOCK PRICES AND EQUITY STIMULUS
FIVE. FINANCE AND REGULATION
SIX. SCHOONER INTELLIGENCE AND THEN SOME
SEVEN. UNCERTAINTY UNDERMINES INVESTMENT
EIGHT. PRODUCTIVITY: THE ULTIMATE MEASURE OF ECONOMIC SUCCESS
NINE. PRODUCTIVITY AND THE AGE OF ENTITLEMENTS
TEN. CULTURE
ELEVEN. THE ONSET OF GLOBALIZATION, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND THE RISE OF THE GINI AND THE CRONY
TWELVE. MONEY AND INFLATION
THIRTEEN. BUFFERS
FOURTEEN. THE BOTTOM LINE
Acknowledgments
Appendices
Notes
Index
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