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新鲜出炉的花旗银行医药行业报告，全英文40页深度。
Dissecting Change: Structural Shifts to Re-draw Landscape
Winners From Upcoming Value Chain Shift — China’s healthcare sector is on
the cusp of structural changes that will significantly recast the value chain. Our
deep-dive analysis suggests more market-based healthcare provision will open up
major opportunities for healthcare services providers and innovative pharma and
devices players. We also studied the evolution of health insurance in developed
markets and envision the likelihood of a multi-payer system where the government
may open the commercial insurance market. We revisit our investment framework
to evaluate likely winners upstream and downstream in the healthcare sector, and
now prefer Fosun Pharma as a focus stock for 2014 (see upgrade note).
Services Sector the Focus — Market focus and capital deployment will shift more
towards healthcare services companies (currently ~2% of market cap of HK-listed
Chinese healthcare companies vs. 13% in the US), in our view, driven by hospital
privatization and the emergence of the services sector. New business models to be
potential beneficiaries are: 1) private healthcare providers, such as private hospitals
and health check-up centers; and 2) 3rd-party testing labs. (Sector roadmap inside.)
Value Capture Through R&D — As the pharma segment becomes more market
based, and with the patent cliff cycle slowing in 2017-18, pharmas now focused on
dominating sales channels and first-to-market generics will gradually look to drive
sales through R&D and drugs innovation. Device companies will need to make a
similar shift to in-house product innovation to stay competitive. Also likely to emerge
is a subsector that converges healthcare services, internet and mobile technologies.
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