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【日期】20140401
【篇幅】PDF145
【摘要】
The sector re-rating is underway.
We have seen the sector start to re-rate in the first quarter with the price to
NPV premium popping up out of the 3-year trading range during the first
quarter of this year. While it has retraced a little, the stable commodity price
performance is a solid base for increased earnings confidence and solid cash
flows. Price volatility is at or near 10 year lows for most industrial commodities
and we expect ongoing low volatility will continue to support the mining sector
re-rate. Our top picks in the Sector are Rio Tinto, Lonmin and Randgold.
Precious metal price upgrades, mostly modest industrial metal price moves
and bulks downgrades.
Our commodity team has upgraded its precious metals view and has increased
its gold price estimates for 2014 by 10% and 6% in 2015. In the base metals,
we have downgraded marginally our expectations for copper, zinc and
aluminium (-4%, -0.3% and -2% in 2014) but upgraded nickel by 2% in 2014
and 11.5% in 2015 as the Indonesian export ban impacts nickel availability.
Coal demand and pricing has been weaker than expected and we have
lowered our 2014 forecasts by -9% for coking coal and -7% for thermal. We
have marked to market the iron ore price and lowered this year’s forecast by -
3% (we remain convinced that the price will easily average above US$100/t).
Earnings expectations generally lowered with the exception of the gold miners
We have generally lowered our earnings expectations for the industrial metals
miners including Anglo (-4%) BHP (-5%), Glencore (-14%) and Rio Tinto(-4%).
Our precious metals miners’ earnings have generally risen off low bases with
the increased gold price expectation including Randgold up 47% and African
Barrick up 51% in 2014.
Deutsche_Bank-Re-rating_on_commodity_stability.pdf
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