Determinants of Inflation in a Dollarized Economy:The Case of Zimbabwe-美元化经...

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英文文献：Determinants of Inflation in a Dollarized Economy:The Case of Zimbabwe-美元化经济中通胀的决定因素:以津巴布韦为例
英文文献作者：Philton Makena
英文文献摘要：
AbstractAdverse inflationary pressure has been a persistent feature of the Zimbabwean economy under a dollarized regime, which was adopted in January 2009. Since the beginning of 2012, the country’s annual inflation has been on a downward trend, initially exhibiting characteristics of disinflation and subsequently deflation. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Zimbabwe under dollarization. The study applies a single error correction model (ECM) to investigate possible short and long-run determinants of Zimbabwe’s overall, food and non-tradables' consumer price indices (CPIs) for the period January 2010 to December 2015. The main findings are that the country’s long-run price level is influenced by changes to the South African Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and South African inflation given the high trade linkages between the two countries, mainly dominated by Zimbabwe’s imports of raw materials, and intermediate and consumer goods from that country. On the other hand, domestic fuel price movements have an impact on the country’s price level as it imports all its fuel. In order to avert a deflationary spiral, authorities need to mobilize significant domestic public, private-sector and international funding in order to increase the capital stock, refurbish the existing infrastructure and invest in new infrastructure projects in order to increase the country’s potential output. These measures will shore up both economic growth,These measures will shore up both economic growth, employment and, ultimately, price stability

在2009年1月实行的美元化制度下，不利的通货膨胀压力一直是津巴布韦经济的一个特征。自2012年初以来，中国的年度通胀率一直呈下降趋势，最初呈现出反通胀、随后出现通缩的特征。本文试图揭示美元化条件下津巴布韦通货膨胀的决定因素。该研究应用单一误差修正模型(ECM)来调查2010年1月至2015年12月期间津巴布韦整体、食品和非贸易品消费价格指数(CPIs)可能的短期和长期决定因素。主要发现是,该国的长期价格水平受更改影响南非兰特/美元汇率和南非通货膨胀高两国之间的贸易联系,主要由津巴布韦的进口原材料、中间和来自那个国家的消费品。另一方面，国内燃料价格的变动会对中国的价格水平产生影响，因为中国所有的燃料都是进口的。为了避免通货紧缩的螺旋式上升，当局需要动员大量的国内公共、私营部门和国际资金，以增加资本存量，翻新现有的基础设施，并投资于新的基础设施项目，以增加国家的潜在产出。这些措施将促进经济增长，促进就业，并最终稳定物价

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