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Contents
Shipping stock valuations and price performance ......................................................... 3
Container shipping: Watch the demand growth ............................................................ 5
Supply/demand fundamentals indicate overcapacity in 2008. We forecast rates on the Transpacific
route to increase on a y-y basis given liners’ strategy of restoring profitability by charging floating
bunker surcharges, while we estimate rates on the Asia-Europe route to see downside risks given the
capacity pressure
Tanker shipping: High crude prices and deletion of single-hull ..................................... 9
Consensus is already low due to the concerns over high crude prices and large new deliveries.
However, we see more upside risks in rate estimates than downside given the possible acceleration of
phasing out of single-hull tankers
Bulk shipping: When will the tide turn? ........................................................................ 12
We think supply/demand fundamentals will continue to favour bulk vessel owners/operators with further
increases in the average rate in 2008, resulting in earnings growth. Looking into 2009, we estimate the
rate upward trend to likely reverse when new deliveries speed up.
Devil’s advocate: Risks to our investment case........................................................... 17
Company updates........................................................................................................ 19
China COSCO 20
China Shipping Container Lines 23
China Shipping Development 29
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