发帖
雷达卡
5 June 2014 71P
Looking under the bonnet
Underneath the stable growth are some red flags and growing signs of differentiation.
In the past month we have:
• Raised our China GDP growth forecasts for Q2 to 7.4% (from 7.1%) and H2 to 7.6%
(from 7.5%), due to the intensification of policy easing measures, with more expected.
• Upgraded our India GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 6.3% from 5.7% and promoted
India into our 'leaders' camp, alongside Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines.
• Lifted our Korea current account surplus forecast for 2014 to USD84bn (5.8%)
from USD60bn (4.3% of GDP).
At first glance, the Q1 GDP reports, the timelier PMIs and leading indexes suggest that
Asia ex-Japan growth is continuing at a reasonably stable rate of about 6% y-o-y. There
are incipient signs of a brightening export outlook and the region's biggest economy,
China, is showing nascent signs of a growth recovery. However, a closer look raises
some red flags and highlights the importance of differentiating within the region.
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