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高华（2008，4）：A-share banks: focus on fundamentals; consolidate into five banks
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Industry Context
A-share bank prices have fallen an average of c. 29% ytd despite the price
surges in the past two days, we believe mainly due to: 1) market concerns
over risks of hyperinflation and further tightening which may hurt bank
NIM and asset quality in 2H08/FY09; 2) technical overhang of the potential
selling of non-tradable shares after their lock-up expires; and 3) the large
weight of large cap banks within A-share fund portfolios, when funds
unloaded positions to reduce risks.
We believe factors 1 and 2 will remain for a while, and we believe the
recent government measures including stamp duty cuts to boost market
sentiment may not change these fundamental challenges.
We would be more fundamentally positive on Chinese banks if the CPI
eases or China introduces the right policy mix, including but not limit to
fast Rmb appreciation and continued money supply control.
We note China A-share banks in general offer better earning visibility,
stronger earning growth at 38% yoy in 2008E, and cheaper valuation at
18X 08E P/E (except three city commercial banks) than the overall A-share
market with average 27% consensus 08E EPS growth and 20X 08E P/E.
Opportunities
For dedicated A-share funds, we would advise taking the opportunity of
near term strength to consolidate positions to the following five A-share
banks (and sell into strength our Sell rated banks):
1) Banks with defensive quality, strong earning visibility and growth: ICBC
A-shares (601398.SS, Buy) and CMB A-shares (600036.SS, Buy);
2) Banks with unique franchise, professional management and good
execution capability, long term growth potential, and reasonable P/E
valuation at 15X to 16X 08E P/E, despite relatively high balance sheet risk
and beta: SZDB (000001.SZ, Neutral) and Industrial (601166.SS, Neutral);
3) Banks with a low premium to dual listed H-shares, a GARP play with
relatively strong franchise, despite near term technical overhang of nontradable
shares sales: BoCom A-shares (601328.SS, Buy).
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