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Latin Coal-Fired Electric Utilities
The New Coal Rush – MPX, AES Gener, and Pampa Holding
COAL-FIRED THERMOELECTRIC GENERATION TO BE FASTEST-GROWING LARGESCALE
POWER SOURCE IN SOUTH AMERICA. Despite environmental concerns we expect
coal-fired generation to grow rapidly due to the lack of alternatives as few environmental
licenses and less attractive sites constrain hydro power and gas shortages limit gas-fired
electricity. The local gas shortages will likely lead to a shift to higher-cost LNG,
implying that gas-fired thermoelectric plants will leap-frog coal-fired plants’ cost of
production. Previously, hydroelectric and gas-fired thermoelectric plants were more than
80% of the region’s electricity generation.
EXPECTED KEY PLAYERS INCLUDE MPX (INITIATED AT PEER PERFORM), AES GENER
(INITIATED AT OUTPERFORM), AND PAMPA HOLDING (OUTPERFORM). Brazil’s MPX
plans to build 9,200MW, or ~95% of total capacity, in coal. AES Gener will likely be the
second-largest coal-thermo electric investor with 2,131MW, or ~35% of capacity, by
2011. Our Peer Perform on MPX reflects the stock’s moderate 15% upside to our target
price of R$922. For AES Gener, our Outperform rating reflects an estimated 31% total
return to year-end 2008. We also reiterate our Outperform on Pampa (58% upside) based
on the company’s extraordinarily inexpensive acquisitions and the ability to sell new
capacity.
THOUGH WE CONSIDER THE THREE COMPANIES THE CLEAREST COAL PLAYS IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES, EACH HAS A VERY DIFFERENT RISK PROFILE. In our view,
AES Gener has the lowest risk of the three, given Chile’s investment-grade status, superb
regulatory model, existing assets, and management’s 20+ year track record in
thermoelectric power. We believe Pampa carries the highest risk, given the near-total lack
of a regulatory environment and the government’s populist economic policies. Despite its
attractive regulatory environment, MPX is moderately risky, in our view, given long-term
cash flows from being a start-up company; hence, our model is highly sensitive to
discount rates and tariff assumptions.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................................... 5
COMPANIES
MPX................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Company Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 12
Investment Positives .................................................................................................................................... 13
Investment Concerns.................................................................................................................................... 14
Investment Strategy and Projects.................................................................................................................. 17
Valuation...................................................................................................................................................... 21
AES Gener....................................................................................................................................................... 34
Company Background and Ownership Structure ......................................................................................... 34
Investment Postives ..................................................................................................................................... 37
Investment Concerns.................................................................................................................................... 39
Valuation...................................................................................................................................................... 42
Pampa Holding ............................................................................................................................................... 51
Company Background and Ownership Structure ......................................................................................... 51
Valuation...................................................................................................................................................... 52
Investment Positives .................................................................................................................................... 54
Investment Concerns.................................................................................................................................... 54
Detailed Company Analysis by Business Segment ...................................................................................... 55
APPENDICES
I: The Brazilian Generation Regulatory Environment ..................................................................................... 68
II: The Chilean Generation Regulatory Environment ....................................................................................... 83
III: The Argentine Generation Regulatory Environment.................................................................................... 94
IV. a: Açu 1st and 2nd Phase – Income Statement ............................................................................................. 105
b: Castilla (Chile) – Income Statement....................................................................................................... 107
c: Peçem 1st and 2nd Phase – Income Statement ......................................................................................... 108
d: Seival II – Income Statement.................................................................................................................. 110
e: Termomaranhão 1st and 2nd Phase – Income Statement.......................................................................... 111
f: Baixo Iguaçu – Income Statement........................................................................................................... 113
g: Termopantanal – Income Statement ....................................................................................................... 114
h: Capivara – Income Statement................................................................................................................. 115
i: Serra do Navio – Income Statement ........................................................................................................ 116
V. a: AES Gener – Financial Statements......................................................................................................... 117
b: Guacolda (50% owned by AES Gener – Financial Statements .............................................................. 120
VI: AES Gener – Plant-By-Plant Technical Details (Thermal Plants) ............................................................. 121
VII. a: Pampa Holding: Loma de la Lata – Cash Flow and Valuation............................................................... 122
b: Pampa Holding: Guemes – Cash Flow and Valuations.......................................................................... 123
c: Pampa Holding: Ingentis Project, Initial Phase – Cash Flow and Valuation.......................................... 124
VIII: Overview of Coal Thermoelectric Technology and Potential in Latin America ........................................ 125
a: Coal Generation Technology Overview ................................................................................................. 133
b: Coal Types............................................................................................................................................. 138
c: Coal Pollution Control Technologies...................................................................................................... 139
IX: Glossary of Electric Utility Terminology ................................................................................................... 140
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