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中国钟表零售业的介绍——买入宜进利(集团)（HK.0304）和新宇亨得利（HK.3389） pdf 英文 37页
Industry context
Watch retail spending is currently one of the fastest-growing discretionary spending items in China, up >40% yoy in ‘07. We expect growth in watch retail spending to continue to surpass that of overall retail spending in the coming years driven by: (1) its relatively early stage of development, (2) strong leverage to rising discretionary spending power. Per capita watch spending in China is just US$2 /yr vs. >US$28 in most developed countries. We believe China could overtake the US to become the largest consumer of Swiss-made watches by ‘15.
2008年北京奥运：对奥运经济繁荣与萧条循环交替的担忧 pdf 英文 24页
As we are approaching the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, there are increasing concerns of whether China will follow the conventional wisdom by experiencing an Olympic-related “boom and bust.” In this article, we take a close look at this topic by surveying the experiences of the last 10 hosting cities. We conclude that neither the amount of the Beijing-2008-Olympics-related investment nor the size of the host city is large enough to
generate a boom and bust in real economic activity for the overall country. However, if macro policies are too loose in the period preceding the game, a cyclical slowdown tends to follow afterwards when policies are forced to tighten.
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