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英文文献：Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Convergence Analysis-拟议中的非洲货币联盟是最理想的货币区吗?实际、货币和财政政策趋同分析
英文文献作者：Asongu Simplice
英文文献摘要：
Purpose – A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the EMU crisis. This paper assesses real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of central bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states. Design/methodology/approach – In the analysis: monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size; real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels; while, fiscal policy targets debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios. A dynamic panel GMM estimation with data from different non-overlapping intervals is employed. The implied rate of convergence and the time required to achieve full (100%) convergence are then computed from the estimations. Findings – Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence: (1) initial conditions for financial development are different across countries; (2) fundamental characteristics as common monetary policy initiatives and IMF backed financial reform programs are implemented differently across countries; (3) there is remarkable evidence of cross-country variations in structural characteristics of macroeconomic performance; (4) institutional cross-country differences could also be responsible for the deficiency in convergence within the potential monetary zones; (5) absence of fiscal policy convergence and no potential for eliminating idiosyncratic fiscal shocks due to business cycle incoherence. Practical implications – As a policy implication, heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics across countries are giving rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Thus, member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of convergence in monetary, real and fiscal policies. This could be done by stringently monitoring the implementation of existing common initiatives and/or the adoption of new reforms programs. Originality/value – It is one of the few attempts to investigate the issue of convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM unions.
目的——一个幽灵正在追捕正在萌芽中的非洲货币区:欧洲货币联盟危机。本文评估了在拟议的WAM和EAM区域内实际的、货币和财政政策的收敛性。共同货币的介绍在西部和东部非洲正面临严峻挑战的时机货币趋同,中央银行运用的必要性共同货币政策传导的建模和预测方法,以及常见的结构和机构特点的要求候选人的州之一。设计/方法/方法-在分析中:货币政策目标通货膨胀和金融动态的深度、效率、活动和规模;实体部门政策的目标是宏观和微观层面GDP增长方面的经济表现;而财政政策的目标是债务与gdp之比和赤字与gdp之比。采用不同非重叠区间数据的动态面板GMM估计方法。隐含的收敛率和达到完全(100%)收敛所需的时间，然后从估计计算。研究结果——研究结果表明，普遍缺乏趋同:(1)各国金融发展的初始条件不同;(2)各国实施共同货币政策举措和国际货币基金组织支持的金融改革方案等基本特征不同;(3)宏观经济绩效的结构特征存在显著的跨国差异;(4)跨国家的制度差异也可能是潜在货币区内趋同不足的原因;(5)财政政策缺乏趋同，也没有消除由于商业周期不一致而造成的特殊财政冲击的潜力。实际影响-作为一项政策影响，各国不同的结构和制度特征正在导致金融中介机构发展的不同水平和模式。因此，会员国应努力协调妨碍货币、实际和财政政策统一效力的结构和体制特点方面的各国差异。这可以通过严格监督现有共同倡议和/或新改革方案的实施来实现。独创性/价值——这是对拟议的WAM和EAM联盟内部趋同问题进行调查的少数尝试之一。
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