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Is a near-term bottom emerging?
Vincent Chan / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6568 / vincent.chan@credit-suisse.com
Peggy Chan, CFA / Research Analyst / 852 2101 6305 / peggy.chan@credit-suisse.com
With the recent fall in the market, MSCI China is now having 19%
upside based on our DDM model for index targeting.
● Forward P/E and trailing PB of MSCI China have dropped back to
the level in October/November 2006, before the major year-end
rally in 2007 and the August-November 2007 rally.
● If we assume 9-10% near-term real growth, and 6-7% inflation,
then it is reasonable to expect market earnings growth at around
15%, which can support the current valuation, at least in nearterm.
In the longer-term, i.e. 12-18 months, the picture will be
much more complex though.
● For investors with a shorter investment horizon, like three-six
months, we think that the short-term trough of the market has
probably been reached, and there is a genuinely possibility for a
20-30% rebound. For two-three years long-term investors, we
advise you to focus on individual sectors and stocks, and mass
consumption is still the sector with best secular outlook.
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[此贴子已经被作者于2008-7-1 9:51:58编辑过]
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