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J.P. Morgan Global Markets Outlook and Strategy – “GMOS”
· The Economy
· Asset allocation
· Cross asset volatility
· Fixed income
OW long-dated US HG corporates as the potential for a significantly stronger USD creates the risk that Fed rate hikes are slower than expected. Stay OW GBP and EUR vs. USD HG and financials vs. non-financials.
Add US to the long leg of our OW Japan vs. Europe. Hold OW in J-REITs within Japan and India within EM.
The BoJ/GPIF one-two seals the Yen’s fate. Keep long USD and add vs. EUR and SEK.
It looks increasingly unlikely that OPEC will reach an agreement to cut production. In this scenario Brent should fall to around $65/bbl. Go short. A better Chinese PMI moves us to be tactically long base metals again.
GMOS - October 2014.pdf
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