Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial devel...

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英文文献：Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial development-金融全球化不确定性/不稳定性有利于金融发展
英文文献作者：Simplice Asongu,Isaac Koomson,Vanessa Tchamyou
英文文献摘要：
Purpose – This study assesses the effect of time-dynamic financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in 53 African countries for the period 2000-2011. Design/methodology/approach – Financial globalisation uncertainty is estimated as time-dynamic to capture business cycle disturbances while all dimensions identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database of the World Bank are employed, namely: financial depth (money supply and liquid liabilities), financial system efficiency (at banking and financial system levels), financial system activity (from banking system and financial system perspectives) and financial size. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. Findings- The following findings are established. First, financial globalisation uncertainty does not significantly affect money supply, financial system deposits and financial size. Second, the uncertainty increases banking system efficiency, banking system activity and financial system activity. Moreover, the positive effects are consistently driven by above-median uncertainty levels. Practical implications- It follows that uncertainty in foreign capital flows may be a disguised advantage for domestic financial development, especially in dealing with the substantially documented issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions. Moreover, the sceptical view in the financial globalisation literature that ‘allocation efficiency’ is only plausible in the absence of uncertainty/instability is not substantiated by the findings. Justifications for the nexuses and other policy implications are discussed. Originality/value- To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to assess the effects of financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in Africa using time-dynamic measurements of financial globalisation uncertainty and all dimensions identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database of the World Bank.

目的——本研究评估了时间动态的金融全球化不确定性对2000-2011年间53个非洲国家金融发展的影响。设计/方法/方法——金融全球化的不确定性估计动态捕捉商业周期扰动,而所有维度确定的金融发展和世界银行的数据库结构,即:金融深度(货币供给和流动性负债),金融体系效率(在银行和金融系统级别),金融体系活动(从银行体系和金融体系的角度)和金融的大小。经验证据是基于正正交偏差矩的推广方法。发现-以下发现是确定的。首先，金融全球化的不确定性对货币供应量、金融体系存款和金融规模没有显著影响。第二，不确定性增加了银行系统效率、银行系统活动和金融系统活动。此外，积极效应始终是由中位数以上的不确定性水平推动的。实际影响- -因此，外国资本流动的不确定性可能是国内金融发展的一种隐蔽优势，特别是在处理非洲金融机构大量记录在案的流动性过剩问题方面。此外，金融全球化文献中关于“配置效率”只有在不存在不确定性/不稳定性的情况下才可信的怀疑观点，并没有得到研究结果的证实。本文讨论了有关连带效应和其他政策影响的理由。独创性/价值——据我们所知，这是第一个评估金融全球化不确定性对非洲金融发展的影响的研究，使用的是金融全球化不确定性的时间动态度量，以及世界银行金融发展和结构数据库确定的所有维度。

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