发帖
雷达卡
The ECB QE force should continue to reverberate into 2015. Not only is the
compression of euro area rate markets far from complete, but we also believe
that this yield compression has yet to be felt in other markets such as credit
and equities. We add to euro vs. US credit overweights by introducing a long
risk 35-100% Crossover vs. 35-100% CDX.HY Dec-19 and by opening an
overweight in euro area vs. US equities currency hedged.
EM currency weakness and lower commodity prices are likely to remain
headwinds for EM equities into next year. We abandon our ill-conceived
overweight in EM vs. DM equities and we instead prefer to seek value in the
equity space via the above overweight in euro vs. US equities.
Semiconductors within US equities and banks within euro area equities
continue to look attractive as long term trading themes.
We note that the threat to US credit markets from lower energy prices is
sectoral and largely priced in. Keep longs in US HY loans and CLOs. We
project a 5% return for HY loans next year. US CLO AAAs in the L+150bp
range are wider than ABS and Corporate spreads.
Latam breakevens continue to print money and see more upside as markets
underestimate the pass-through from weaker currencies to domestic inflation.
Take profit on Colombian breakevens but stay long Mexican and Brazilian
breakevens.
While we still see value in overweighting rates and underweighting the
currencies of Antipodeans, we take part profit by exiting our long in 10Y
ACGBs vs. 10Y USTs. Lower dairy vs. copper prices keep us long CLP vs.
NZD.
“Trade opportunities for long-term investors” is a quarterly publication we
first launched in June 2010. It summarizes long-term trade ideas across J.P.
Morgan Research, for investors who have 2-year investment horizons and are
less concerned about marking-to-market in the near term. The minimum
holding period for each trade is typically two quarters. Since we first
published trade opportunities for long-term investors four years ago, we have
made 146 different trade recommendations across all asset classes. Of these,
103 or 71% have been profitable.
trade opportunities for long term investor.pdf
(845.59 KB, 需要: 1 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
